North Carolina vs. Baylor: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/19/22)

North Carolina vs Baylor Betting Odds

The Tar Heels are back in business after a dominating performance over Marquette. Brady Manek is looking as good as he has all season.

Meanwhile, Baylor is still Baylor. The defending champs locked up a No. 1 seed for the third straight year and predictably rolled over Norfolk State.

But North Carolina won’t be as easy. But can the Bears get past the five-point spread?

North Carolina Tar Heels Odds

With Manek playing so well, he and Armando Bacot make up arguably the best frontcourt in the nation.

But what are we getting out of the backcourt?

Leaky Black is one of college basketball’s best lockdown defenders. He also has a 121 ORtg. Things have been good for Black this season.

Caleb Love has not been as good. He’s criminally inefficient, sporting a 46% effective field goal percentage. But he’s also much higher-usage on offense, so some of that is forgiven.

We do know that North Carolina will play hard defense without fouling (sixth in opponent free-throw rate) and crash the boards (second in defensive rebounding rate).

Baylor Bears Odds

The Bears are aggressive and opportunistic. They force a ton of turnovers, ranking top-15 nationally in defensive turnover rate and offensive rebounding rate. Baylor can cause havoc and create turnovers, get out in transition because of it, and also pick up plenty of second-chance points.

The guards still run the show in Waco. James Akinjo has been great shouldering the load after Baylor lost its three guards from last season, although he takes too many 2-point jumpers. LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler have picked up the rest of the slack, with Flagler becoming a sharpshooter (39.3% from deep).

However, it’s worth noting that Cryer might still be injured for this game. He was ruled out last minute before the Norfolk State game.

The key will be the big men on the interior. Flo Thamba and Matthew Mayer will have to hold their own against the Tar Heel frontcourt.

North Carolina vs Baylor Prediction and Pick

My pick: Baylor -5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Whenever people expect it the least, that’s when Scott Drew dominates.

Only 37% of the tickets are on Baylor at the time of this writing. So, let’s fade the public and take the Bears.

The Tar Heels have been unpredictable all year, and I think North Carolina’s stock is far too high right now. Especially after dominating a Marquette team that had been trending down all season.

I’ll take the Bears to win by seven on Saturday.

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