Northwestern vs Michigan: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/26/22)

Northwestern vs Michigan Betting Odds

Is Michigan figuring it out?

After taking down Maryland by 19 last Tuesday, the Wolverines walked into Bloomington and boat-raced Indiana. Michigan left with an 18-point road win to get them back to 3-3 in the conference.

Meanwhile, Northwestern is melting.

The Wildcats have dropped six of their last seven and are now 2-6 in conference play. Chris Collins’ teams tend to melt around this time of year, so their level of play isn’t surprising.

With these two heading in opposite directions, does that present a buy-low, sell-high spot with Northwestern? Or do we trust Michigan to continue rolling?

Northwestern Wildcats Odds

This is a typical yearly script for the Wildcats.

Northwestern comes out hot, mostly dominates a weak non-conference schedule, and then wins a few big-time conference games before completely melting.

The ‘Cats started the season 8-2 with a win over Maryland. They recently beat Michigan State in East Lansing. But they are also 9-8 overall and 2-6 in conference play.

History suggests things could get uglier:

• 2021: Wildcats start 6-1 and 3-0 in conference play; finish 9-14 and 6-13 in conference play
• 2020: Wildcats start 6-9 with wins over Providence and Nebraska; finish 8-23 and 3-17 in conference play
• 2019: Wildcats sit at 12-7 on Jan. 22 after back-to-back wins over Rutgers and Indiana; finish by losing 12 of their final 13 games.
• 2018: Wildcats sit at 15-10 on Feb. 6 after beating ranked Michigan; finish by losing the final seven games.

It’s the same script every year for Collins and Co., and I’m looking to fade them going forward.

It’s unfortunate, as I had higher hopes than usual for Northwestern this season. The Wildcats returned almost every major contributor from last season sans Miller Kopp.

With Boo Buie running things in the backcourt, Northwestern is fourth in offensive turnover rate. Pete Nance and Ryan Young are shouldering the rest of the scoring, and both have an ORtg over 115.

The only major disappointment has been Chase Audige – that is, outside of the entire team’s performance.

In the end, I’m just not sure there’s enough blue-chip talent on Northwestern’s roster to compete in the Big Ten. Wins may never come for Collins in the Big Ten.

Michigan Wolverines Odds

There have been all sorts of issues with the Wolverines this season.

Devante Jones hasn’t been perfect, and the defense has been horrific.

So, what’s gone right the last few games?

Well, holding both teams to less than 1.1 points per possession is a start. The two teams also went a combined 11-for-36 from 3 (30.5%).

Jones recorded 11 assists in the two-game stretch, which isn’t out of the ordinary but is important for Juwan Howard’s offense to work. Hunter Dickinson has also broken out, picking up 46 points and 15 rebounds in the two wins.

But through it all, I keep coming back to one thing: The wing play.

Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner were way better than anyone gave them credit last year. The two were unbelievable two-way players. Almost transcendent (if you’re a Michigan fan).

It’s tough to replicate that, especially between two freshmen. Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate were highly touted, but they have shown inconsistency at times – which isn’t unsurprising for a couple of young players.

However, over the last two days, those two have combined for 59 points on 21-for-35 from the field (60%) and 8-for-12 from 3 (66.7%).

Those two are starting to replicate some of the wing production from last season, and that’s going to be the key to Michigan continuing this run.

Northwestern vs Michigan Prediction and Pick

My pick: Michigan -7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

I’ve been eyeing this spot for a while.

Michigan might be figuring something out, and Northwestern is the perfect team to take that out on. Northwestern is always overvalued at this time of year because Collins falls apart down the stretch.

This will be a good continuing-to-get-right spot for Michigan, especially for the young wings. Diabate and Houstan have height advantages over Audige and Nance, and they will hopefully take advantage of interior driving opportunities.

It’s a big spread, but I believe Michigan is going to cruise on Wednesday night in Ann Arbor.