Notre Dame Vs. Alabama Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/18/22)

11th seed Notre Dame (23-10) takes on 6th seed Alabama (19-13) in the First Round of the West region. The two schools have a historic rivalry, although it has mostly manifested in football. With Alabama improving their basketball program in the last few years, the colleges can fight it out on the court now. In their First Four, Notre Dame defeated Rutgers 89-87 in a 2OT thriller. Paul Atkinson Jr made the game winning layup to advance Notre Dame. During the season, the most notable wins for the Fighting Irish were against Kentucky and UNC. They are 52nd in KenPom’s Adjusted Efficiency Margin, and 18th in the nation in 3PT%. Notre Dame has not played in March Madness since 2017, so they will look to reestablish themselves. 

Alabama had one of the most impressive sets of wins over the regular season. They defeated teams such as Gonzaga, Houston, Tennessee, LSU, Baylor, and Arkansas. The Crimson Tide lost to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament, but they still managed to grab a 4th seed. KenPom ranks them 25th in Adjusted Efficiency Margin, a very solid mark. Alabama was a 2nd seed last year, and they lost to UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen. They will look to go on a deeper run and secure a national title. 

Notre Dame Vs. Alabama Betting Odds

Notre Dame Betting

Notre Dame is one of the best outside shooting teams in the nation. Dane Goodwin (45.6 3PT%, 4.5 3PA) and Nate Laszewski (46.2 3PT%, 3.7 3PA) are a scorching duo that can erase any deficit quickly. Cormac Ryan (38.3 3PT%, 3.8 3PA) and Trey Wertz (38.7 3PT%, 1.9 3PA) are no slouches either. They are not one-dimensional though, as Paul Atkinson Jr produces in the paint. Whether it is posting up opponents, crashing the offensive glass, or cutting to the basket, Notre Dame can rely on Atkinson Jr to pressure the rim and force opponents to guard all areas of the court. 

Defensively, Notre Dame is vulnerable in the paint. They are one of the worst defenses at stopping the opponent from posting up, and they are vulnerable to offensive rebounders. The Irish are solid at limiting catch and shoot specialists, but their pick and roll defense needs work

Alabama Odds

Alabama is a terrible perimeter shooting team (309th in nation at 30.8 3PT%). Jaden Shackelford (35.6 3PT%) and Keon Ellis (35.6 3PT%) are the only threats from deep. However, they make up for this deficiency with a solid inside game and a fast pace. The Crimson Tide attack the basket and are often rewarded with free throws. Jahvon Quinerly and JD Davidson are excellent ball handlers and passers who find the open man. They can command the pick and roll with 7’0” Charles Bediako setting the screens. Davidson, in particular, has thrown some impressive passes. Shackelford (16.7 PPG) is the leading scorer for Alabama. He struggles to finish around the rim, but he can launch from a few steps beyond the three-point line. 

Alabama’s defense stifles guards, but opposing centers can do some damage in the paint. They have given up too many second chance points from offensive rebounds and struggle to defend isolation plays. Luckily for them, Notre Dame is a better perimeter offense than interior offense.

Notre Dame Vs. Alabama Picks & Prediction

This game is between complete opposites: Alabama is 14th in pace and a terrible three-point shooting team, while Notre Dame is 309th in pace and an excellent three-point shooting team. I think it will be closer than expected, but I like Alabama to cover the current spread of -4. They are better defensively and have a higher ceiling than Notre Dame. Bediako will be a problem that Notre Dame cannot handle, while Shackelford and Ellis can hit timely threes. In games between high-paced offenses and low-paced offenses, I tend to gravitate towards the teams with the higher pace. It’s easier to adjust by slowing down your offense than by speeding it up, which favors Alabama here. 

March Madness Bracket