Oakland Raiders Week 16 Matchup Breakdown

Oakland Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles
12/25/17 @ 8:30 PM EST

The home Philadelphia Eagles – playing on Christmas night in their first home game since quarterback Carson Wentz was lost for the rest of the season with a torn ACL – host the Oakland Raiders, who are reeling at 6-8 after back-to-back losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and the Dallas Cowboys.

This game may be very big for the home team. If the Minnesota Vikings loss to the Green Bay Packers on the road on Saturday, the Eagles will clinch the home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs throughout the playoffs. However, if the Vikings win, the 12-2 Eagles’ magic number will remain at one. Thus, the Eagles may need to win this game against the Raiders. The Raiders need a whole lot of Christmas Eve help to remain in the playoff hunt.

Las Vegas likes the home team in this one. The Eagles opened as an overwhelming 9-point favorite. A high-scoring game is expected. The over/under line opened at 48.5.

The over/under line is relatively high because the Eagles showed in their first game without Wentz, they can still get into the end zone. Philadelphia beat the New York Giants, 34-29. Wentz’s replacement, Nick Foles, threw four touchdown passes against the Giants. By the way, the last time these two teams met, Foles threw seven touchdown passes against the Raiders in 2013.

Getting to past the 48.5 point-over line may depend on the Raiders. The last five Raiders’ games have not surpassed 41 points. As the Associated Press pointed out this week, the Raiders are 6-0 when they score 20 or more points. They are 0-8 when they don’t score 20 points. The Raiders surpassed the 20-point mark 11 times last season when they went 12-4.

But the Raiders’ offense has been terribly uneven this season. Quarterback Derek Carr, an MVP candidate last year, has regressed in first-year offensive coordinator Todd Downing’s scheme.

If the Raiders are going to be able to pull off the upset in Philly, Carr will need to have success passing the ball. The Eagles can be thrown on. Eli Manning threw for 434 yards and four touchdown passes against the Eagles on Sunday. So, the opening is there for Carr.

Another complication for Oakland’s passing game is the loss of left tackle Donald Penn. He was lost for the rest of the season when he suffered a foot injury Sunday night. Right tackle Marshall Newhouse will move to over to protect Carr’s blindside and Vadal Alexander will play right tackle. It is too early to know if Carr will have starting receiver Amari Cooper back from an ankle injury. Last week, Oakland coach Jack Del Rio said he was hopeful Cooper could still play this season.

Running the ball will likely be more difficult for Oakland. The Eagles have the top run defense in the NFL. They allow 74.5 yards a game on the ground. Oakland starting tailback Marshawn Lynch has been better against the in the second half of the season. He had 76 yards on 18 carries against Dallas. Attaining those numbers won’t be easy against the Eagles.

Defensively, the Raiders will need to harass Foles. Mack is playing the pass better recently and are pressuring the quarterback better in the four games since John Pagano took over for the fired Ken Norton Jr. as defensive coordinator. The Raiders have all four of their interceptions this season and half of their 28 sacks in the past four games.

Oakland will need to elevate its game in all three phases to win this game, especially if the Eagles have something to play for. However, even with Foles, the Eagles are the superior team.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Raiders 17

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Bill Williamson has been covering the NFL for 21 straight seasons. He has been a newspaper beat writer in four NFL cities and he spent eight years covering the league at ESPN.

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