Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds & Predictions (10/8/22)

The Ohio State Buckeyes travel to East Lansing this weekend to play the Michigan State Spartans in another electric Big Ten battle.

Although this battle isn’t as impressive as usual.

The Spartans have lost three straight and failed to cover as underdogs in all three games. The defense got shredded by Washington, Minnesota, and Maryland. Sparty now finds itself as a 27-point home dog in Big Ten play.

Ohio State is rolling along at 5-0 and has covered three straight. The team looked shaky to begin the season but the offense is rolling now.

But can the Buckeyes cover a four-touchdown spread in East Lansing during Big Ten play?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans Broncos odds, picks, and predictions.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans Odds

Some sharp money has come in on Michigan State at the +27 number, but the line has been moving Ohio State’s way from the -24.5 number on Sunday.

The over has taken sharp money, too, being pushed up slowly from the opener of 63.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction & Pick

Michigan State is going to get shelled.

Sparty is going to get aerial raided by CJ Stroud and co. The Spartan defense is sub-80 nationally in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades, Pass Success Rate, and Havoc created. They’re allowing 275 passing yards per game and a 67.4% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. They also are 107th in PFF’s Coverage grades.

Stroud is an early Heisman candidate. He’s tossed for 1376 yards at over 10 yards per attempt with an 18:2 TD-to-INT ratio. He has the best receiving core in the nation and can blitz any defense.

The Buckeyes have already dropped 49 points and 52 points against Rutgers and Wisconsin. They might have an easier matchup than that this week.

There’s a chance Michigan State has some success on offense, given they have a pretty good pass-blocking offensive line. But Ohio State has been excellent at preventing the rush and did so against two solid ground attacks in Rutgers and Wisconsin.

This is a blowout. Ohio State has won and covered against Michigan State in five straight games. I’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans Key Matchups

Will Michigan St be able to get the passing attack rolling against the Ohio State secondary? Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Ohio ST vs Michigan St below.
Key Matchup: Michigan State’s Wide Receivers vs Ohio State’s Secondary

The Spartans have a few great wide receivers. Sophomore Keon Coleman has broken out with 25 receptions so far. Jayden Reed turned down the NFL and has picked up 19 receptions and 190 receiving yards. Tre Mosely has three touchdown catches.

While Ohio State has a great coverage grade (38th in PFF’s rankings), it grades out poorly in tackling (99th in PFF’s rankings).

If Michigan State’s wideouts can outmaneuver Ohio State’s defensive backs, specifically by picking up yards after the catch, then Michigan State could cover this spread. It’d also help the over hit.

But considering Payton Thorne is the Sparty quarterback, I’m not that confident in that happening.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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