Ohio State vs. Purdue kicks off this Saturday at 12:00pm EST in West Lafayette as a home game for the Boilermakers. Ohio State is currently a -19.5 favorite and -1200 on the moneyline while the total is set at 50.5. Read on for more Ohio State vs. Purdue predictions as the Boilermakers look to keep this closer than the number implies by covering the spread.
Ohio State Vs. Purdue Prediction – College Football Week 7
It was an absolute heart breaker for Maryland bettors last week as turnovers and a meaningless field goal burned Terps bettors. Kyle McCord continued to struggle under center, failing to get any sort of consistency going through the air for a majority of the contest. McCord’s struggles were masked by Maryland turnovers, giving Ohio State generous field position in scoring territory.
They now need to hit the road and take on a Purdue team who is more than capable of keeping up with the scoring pace set by the Buckeyes. While the Boilermakers 110th ranked Havoc Allowed metric is certainly worrisome, it’s worth noting Ohio State is league average at generating Havoc and benefitted from two horrific Taulia throws.
When Ohio State’s defense is not benefitting from turnovers, they have struggled to contain any sort of pass attack. They rank a lowly 83rd in Def Pass Success Rate, routinely allowing opposing quarterbacks to move down the field and cut the distance to gain in half. That puts offenses ahead of the sticks, sustaining drives and getting into scoring positions.
Purdue’s Hudson Card doesn’t necessarily strike fear into opposing defenses, but he is more than capable of shredding spread out coverage and keeping Purdue drives alive. Especially if second levels sell out in coverage, dropping back and leaving the middle open for Card to exploit with his legs. Should the offensive line hold up against OSU’s pass rush then Card will find himself with cleaner pockets in an effort to cut down on his turnover worthy throws.
Where this gets really interesting is on the other side of the ball. Kyle McCord has shown no progression with his consistency, now having to go against a defense that ranks above average in Def Pass Success Rate. Due to his lack of deep ball, Ohio State will be unable to exploit Purdue’s lack of Def Explosiveness as well. Factor in TreVeyon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka being listed as questionable, and Ohio State’s high-powered offense may take a step back in production.
Ohio State Vs. Purdue Prediction: Purdue +19.5
Ohio State Vs. Purdue Betting Odds
Even after a fluky performance against the Terps, oddsmakers still have Ohio State as a comfortable favorite by opening them as high as -21 against the Boilermakers. Bettors believe that number opened a tad too high, taking Purdue down to +19.5 as of writing. While I got a piece on Purdue at +21, this number is good down to +17.5 with plenty of value left on the current number.
As for the total, oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a quick pace by opening the number at 52.5. Like the spread, bettors believe that number opened too high and have hit the under down to the current total of 49.5. Should this break through the key number of 49 then an over may come into play as Purdue should have no issue with moving the ball into scoring position with their pass attack in an effort to match the OSU scoring pace.
Ohio State Vs. Purdue Key Matchups
Can Purdue’s front seven continue to limit the Ohio State rush attack?
Ohio State Rushing Struggles Vs. Purdue Front Seven
One of the main culprits to the Ohio State offensive inefficiency has been because of their struggles with the ground game. An oddity for a unit that is normally elite with both the run and pass, yet this ground game has failed to get out of the gate. They currently rank 101st in Rush Success Rate, 61st in Rush PPA, and 65th in Rush Explosiveness.
Ryan Day expects TreVeyon Henderson to be full go next week, after not playing Saturday against Maryland. pic.twitter.com/B3YnUXxGDT
— Lantern Sports (@LanternSports) October 7, 2023
Even if Henderson plays, they have clearly struggled even with him in the lineup. This gives an edge towards Purdue’s front seven, a unit that ranks 50th in Def Rush Success Rate and 59th in Def Rush PPA. While explosiveness is an issue, Ohio State has yet to demonstrate that they can take advantage in that department.