Ohio State vs. Florida: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/24/21)

Ohio State vs. Florida Betting Odds

That Ohio State game on Monday was something.

The Buckeyes held a 12-point lead with 10 minutes left in the second half against Seton Hall, only to blow it and be tied with seconds remaining.

However, freshmen Meechie Johnson stepped in and became an instant superstar in Columbus. Draining a deep 3 with 1.8 seconds remaining to win the game, 79-76.

Meanwhile, Florida has largely cruised through its non-conference schedule. The Gators even recorded a statement 16-point victory over in-state rival Florida State. The Gators are a very solid all-around roster.

However, do the Gators have what it takes to battle the dominant Buckeye offense?

Ohio State Buckeyes Odds

Prior to the season, I believed that the return of EJ Lidell, Kyle Young, and Justice Sueing will make the Buckeyes an offensive force once again.

Unfortunately, Sueing will miss an extended period of time due to injury. Leaving a lot of the scoring load shouldered on Liddell.

However, the junior big man has stepped up. Through three games, Liddell is averaging 22.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 3.4 blocks per game. Currently, he’s ranked first in KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings.

The Buckeyes are Liddell’s team, and Holtmann is going to run everything through him. The Buckeyes already run almost a fifth of their offensive plays through the post, with Liddell getting over 40% of those attempts and posting 1.04 points per possession on them (73rd percentile nationally).

The offense isn’t the worry in Columbus, however. Last season, the Buckeyes were one of the worst defensive teams in the Big Ten. This season, things aren’t looking much brighter.

Ohio State is allowing .883 points per possession in the half-court so far, which ranks in the 26th percentile nationally. While they’ve been above average in shot prevention (99th nationally in eFG%, at 46.4%), the Buckeyes rank outside the top-200 teams in defensive turnover rate (18%), and defensive rebounding rate (32.6%).

The Buckeyes can go toe-to-toe offensively with any team in the country. But their defense puts a ceiling on their championship potential.

Florida Gators Odds

I knew that Colin Castleton would be good. However, I didn’t realize just how good.

Through four games, Castleton’s averaging 17/10 while shooting over 55% from the field. He’s also adding 3.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. All-in-all, he’s ranked third in KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings, biting on Liddell’s heels.

At 6-foot-11 and 240 pounds, Castleton is an interior force on the defensive end. However, his greatest attribute is his athleticism.

Florida gets into transition at one of the highest rates in the nation (31.7% of shots come in transition, 31st nationally). Meanwhile, Castleton is one of the best big men in the nation at running the floor.

Last season, Castleton posted a whopping 1.656 points per possession in transition, which ranked in the 98th percentile of all Division-I players (not just big men). His ability to force turnovers on the defensive end and then get down the floor for transition buckets is almost unheard of for his size.

Castleton has completely transformed the Florida team, which currently ranks in the top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

The key will be his supporting cast. Penn State transfer Myreon Jones has stepped into his role well, averaging over 12 points per game while shooting over 41% from deep. Plus, Tyree Appleby is averaging 12 points per game himself while dishing out over four assists per game.

The ceiling for this Florida team is very high.

Prediction and Pick 

My pick: Florida ML (-150 or better)

Ohio State shouldn’t have beaten Seton Hall. The Pirates dominated that game down the stretch, and the Sueing-less Buckeyes floundered in crunch time.

It was a similar situation to when OSU played Akron and Xavier. It’s very hard to trust Ohio State right now.

Meanwhile, Florida has a very legit, high-level victory over FSU and is absolutely destroying inferior competition. Castleton and co. can match up with the Buckeyes on both ends of the floor, and I expect a fairly convincing victory.