Ohio State vs Illinois: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/24/22)

Ohio State vs Illinois Betting Odds

Two of the best teams in the nation’s most competitive conference meet Thursday night, as the 10-5 Ohio State Buckeyes will visit the 12-4 Illinois Fighting Illini

This matchup is always fun, as it features two of the nation’s best centers. Whoever plays better between Kofi Cockburn and EJ Liddell often decides who wins this game.

However, both teams have incredibly talented backcourts.

The Illini tandem of Trent Frazier and Alfonso Plummer has been lighting it up. And let’s not forget the one-man show that is Andre Curbelo.

Meanwhile, Malaki Branham has been lighting it up in Columbus in his freshman season.

So, which team has the edge in this big-time Big Ten battle.

Ohio State Buckeyes Odds

Ohio State got lucky with scheduling down the stretch.

Six of the Buckeyes’ final eight games come at home this season, and this game represents the first of a two-game road trip. After Illinois, the Buckeyes will play Maryland in College Park.

But once this road trip stretch is over, Ohio State finishes with Nebraska, Michigan State, and Michigan all at home. The Buckeyes could easily close the season with three straight wins, and if Purdue and Illinois drop a game or two, the late-season Big Ten race could become interesting.

On a more important note, Ohio State is still projected as a five-seed in the tournament. But again, with three straight wins to end the season, the Buckeyes could sneak onto the four-line.

But without looking too far ahead, how do the Buckeyes beat Illinois first?

Branham must keep cooking. The Illinois backcourt is one of the toughest defensively in the conference, as Frazier and Plummer are both lockdown on-ball defenders. However, Underwood won’t over-pressure the ball, and Branham has scored 50 points in his last two games primarily on downhill drives (16-for-22 shooting from inside the arc).

At 6-foot-5, Branham has size advantages over everyone in the Illini perimeter save Jacob Grandison. I think Malaki can light it up this game.

And don’t forget his ability to connect with Liddell in the two-man game:

What a feed from Malaki Branham to send it to overtime. pic.twitter.com/3VoTfJF0GW

— Eleven Warriors (@11W) February 22, 2022

Liddell will have to hold his own against Cockburn. In three games against Illinois and Cockburn last season, Liddell averaged 19 points and six rebounds per game. He struggled in the Big Ten tournament championship game, but that’s only because Liddell shot 0-for-7 from 3.

Illinois Fighting Illini Odds

How did Cockburn perform in those meetings?

In those three games, Cockburn actually performed a little below average. He averaged 14 points and eight rebounds per game, although he did so on super high efficiency. He also was playing second-fiddle to Ayo Dosunmu.

Either way, Liddell and Ohio State seemed to contain Cockburn fairly well. Moreover, the Buckeyes grade out in the 75th percentile in post-up defense this season, backing up that claim.

Dosunmu was his usual self, but he didn’t fill up the box score. So how will the new trio of Illinois guards fair against this Ohio State perimeter defense?

Well, Ohio State has never been known for its defensive prowess. Coach Brad Underwood leads a squad that’s generally lights out offensively while being lackadaisical defensively. Specifically, Ohio State is 10th in defensive turnover rate and 12th in steal rate. Plus, the Buckeyes rank below the 30th percentile pick-and-roll points per possession allowed.

Illinois runs the pick-and-roll at a top-30 rate nationally and ranks above the 80th percentile in points per possession running those sets. Frazier and Plummer have been particularly good as the ball-handlers, while Cockburn, Grandison, and Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk all grade out above the 90th percentile in roll-man points per possession.

So, while Illinois might struggle to run everything through Cockburn, ball-screen offense should be near automatic for the Illini in this game.

Ohio State vs Illinois Prediction and Pick

My pick: Over 141 (+100 at DraftKings)

This number feels low considering the two team’s offensive capabilities.

As mentioned, I think Branham will continue to cook against a perimeter defense that won’t overpressure him.

Meanwhile, Illinois is going to pick-and-roll Ohio State’s lackluster defense to death.

Liddell and Cockburn will both score – and hopefully a lot – and this game will not be short on buckets.

All three matchups last season closed above 145, and all three went over. Both teams scored over 80 points in two of those battles.

I’ll happily play the over in this spot, and I’m looking to play it up to about 143.5.