Get Ohio State vs. Michigan player prop picks & odds for the (11/25/23) matchup.
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Ohio State vs. Michigan kicks off this Saturday at noon EST in Ann Arbor, Michigan as a home game for the Wolverines. Ohio State is currently a +3.5 underdog and +143 on the moneyline while the total is set at 45.5. Expect Michigan to heavily rely on Blake Corum’s running ability over J.J. McCarthy’s arm while Kyle McCord hits Marvin Harrison Jr in stride, all giving value as player props for this Ohio State vs. Michigan matchup.
Blake Corum Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
While the Michigan offense struggled to get it going in a trap game against the Maryland Terps, Blake Corum had no issue with finding success on the ground as he rushed for 94 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries. Ohio State’s defense will be a far tougher test for Corum to succeed against, yet the volume alone puts him in a position to do so as he carries the Michigan offense.
The Ohio State defense has actually been the Buckeyes lone consistent source of success, a drastic change from years past after being carried off the backs of its offense. The script has now changed as the Buckeyes rush defense currently ranks 10th in Def Rush Success Rate, 14th in Def Rush PPA, and 41st in Def Rush Explosiveness.
While those metrics may seem daunting, Michigan’s interior offensive line is more than capable of opening up holes for Corum to blitz through the middle and exploit the Buckeyes regressing def rush explosiveness mark. More intriguing yet, Ohio State’s defense is middling in Havoc which means they struggle to create contact in the backfield. Expect Corum to find plenty of open field to work with as he bursts to the second level of the Ohio State defense.
J.J. McCarthy Under 204.5 Passing Yards
It’s been a month to forget for J.J. McCarthy and the Michigan passing offense, yet to hardly any fault of their own as their ground game has run wild against inferior competition. Even against an elite defense like Penn State, Michigan had no issue with opting into abusing the ground game to resounding success.
Blake Corum has now tied the single-season school record with his 20th rush TD of the year pic.twitter.com/BCA9o3PC6i
— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) November 18, 2023
J.J. McCarthy will find himself under pressure and on the run against Ohio State’s advantage on the edge. This potentially creates ill-advised throws against an Ohio State secondary who ranks 14th in Def Pass Success Rate, first in Def Pass PPA, and first in Def Pass Explosiveness.
Michigan would be better off abusing the run off the backs of an elite run blocking unit and one of the best running backs in football. Especially with rumors swirling about how J.J. McCarthy may be dealing with an injury, potentially coming into this one less than 100% which can create problems as he tries to maneuver in a collapsing pocket.
Kyle McCord Over 233.5 Passing Yards
In what has been a down year for the Ohio State offense, they will need Kyle McCord to step up in the biggest game of his starting career against a stout Michigan defense. Finding consistent pass success was an issue early in the year for McCord and the Buckeyes offense, yet they have started to find their groove as they currently rank ninth in Pass PPA and Success Rate.
Better yet for McCord’s chances of clearing this number, they are largely expected to play from behind and will have to revert to a heavier dose of the pass to stay within scoring pace. Especially with their ground game failing to generate any sort of elite production, ranking a lowly 52nd in Rush Success Rate, 71st in Rush PPA, and 127th in Rush Explosiveness.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Anytime Touchdown
With Ohio State’s offense most likely having to implement a heavier dose of the pass due to a middling ground game, star wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr will find himself with more attempts of punching it in for six. He is a versatile receiver, being both a downfield threat as well as being able to create separation when streaking across the middle.
More intriguing yet, Michigan’s pass attack has actually struggled to defend against opposing Pass Explosiveness at an elite rate. While Kyle McCord has struggled to connect on the long ball, he will still be in a position to generate an explosive play by hitting Harrison Jr across the middle and getting him in the open field. This makes Marvin a threat to score at a moment’s notice, let alone being able to go up and get it in goal line situations.