Ohio State vs Purdue: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/30/22)

Ohio State vs Purdue Betting Odds

Here we go. The two best offensive teams in the Big Ten are finally matching up.

It couldn’t come at a better time for both teams, either. Both Ohio State and Purdue are working on mini winnings streaks, with OSU having won three straight and Purdue two.

I couldn’t be more excited about this game. Mostly because both teams are very weak on the defensive end.

Ohio State’s defensive woes are well documented. However, the Boilermakers’ defensive issues are only coming to light now.

We can definitely expect points in this affair. But where does the betting value lie?

Ohio State Buckeyes Odds

EJ Liddell might be the best player in the Big Ten.

He’s so dominant in every area of the game. He’ll post-up efficiently (.798 post-up PPP, 75th percentile). He’ll spot-up efficiently (1.288 PPP, 95th percentile). He’s a great rebounder (7.8 per game) and scores 20 per game with ruthless efficiency (62% true shooting).

He’s also a great defender, ranking 42nd among all D-I players in block rate.

And he sees the floor so well out of the post, dishing out almost three assists per game while the offense works through him.

As you can see from this graphic, Liddell does everything well:

Image credit: CBB Analytics

But Ohio State isn’t one of the best offenses nationally just because of Liddell.

Malaki Branham has lived up to his expectations. The former Mr. Ohio Basketball is scoring 10 points per game in his freshman year with an ORtg above 110. Jamari Wheeler runs the offense, but Branham has been the main offensive weapon in the Buckeye backcourt.

Malaki Branham off to a hot start. pic.twitter.com/gYq5kgE2E2

— Eleven Warriors (@11W) January 28, 2022

Ohio State has a recent reputation for being dominant offensively and mediocre defensively. However, the team has taken a step up on that end this season. OSU is top-50 nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed and top-30 in block rate.

Again, however, a lot of that is due to Liddell’s interior presence.

But Ohio State is vulnerable to the pick-and-roll. OSU is 293rd nationally in pick-and-roll points per possession allowed (.829), as Liddell and his guards haven’t built chemistry in those sets yet.

Purdue Boilermakers Odds

Purdue has looked so good this season. The Boilermakers reached No. 1 in the AP Poll for the first time in the school’s history. Matt Painter is the guy to beat in the Big Ten.

However, there’s a cloud hanging over their head.

The Purdue defense is very exploitable. Purdue has now dropped outside the top-70 in defensive efficiency and has allowed high-efficiency performances in losses.

Despite Jaden Ivey and Eric Hunter’s length and effort, the Boilermaker perimeter defense is not very effective. They are 336th in defensive turnover rate (15.1%) and 288th in pick-and-roll points per possession allowed (.825).

And dominant, ball-heavy playmakers can take advantage of this weakness. Johnny Davis and Brad Davison brutalized Purdue when Wisconsin beat Purdue. Xavier Johnson and Rob Phinisee did the same thing in Indiana’s upset of the Boilermakers.

The offense is still incredible. It’s first nationally in offensive efficiency and can beat you every which way. Trevion Williams and Zach Edey are dominant in post-up situations. Ivey and Hunter can run the pick-and-roll or create off the bounce themselves. And Sasha Stefanovic is one of the smoothest shooters in college hoops.

SASHA STEFANOVIC 👏👏

Already his 3rd three of the night for @BoilerBall 😤 pic.twitter.com/v5SBSte8Hh

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) January 28, 2022

But the blueprint to beating Purdue has been laid. Painter will have to adjust if the Boilermakers want to make a legit run in March.

Ohio State vs Purdue Prediction and Pick

My pick: Ohio State +10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

This line is utterly disrespectful to Ohio State.

The Buckeyes don’t have the most impressive resume, and they’ve recently had a long break. But no team should be catching double digits in the Big Ten (excluding Nebraska).

These are two dominant offensive basketball teams, and this game will come right down to the wire. Both OSU and Purdue will find ways to score for 40 minutes.

Purdue will probably win at home. But asking Purdue to get across 10 against a team that’s 6-2 in Big Ten play is too much to ask.

Give me Ohio State at +10 or better.