Ohio Vs. Wyoming Predictions, Picks, Odds Barstool Arizona Bowl (12/30/22)

The 2022 college football season for the Ohio Bobcats will forever be labeled as “what could have been”. They looked like one of the clear favorites to win the MAC conference championship up until they saw NFL level talent quarterback Kurtis Rourke go down with a season ending injury. Without him, this offense crumbled. Can the Ohio Bobcats bounce back and their season on a high note? Find more on my Ohio Vs. Wyoming prediction below. 

Ohio Vs. Wyoming Odds

Oddsmakers think so as they opened the Bobcats as a -2.5 favorite. Bettors have been neutral on the spread, keeping it at the current number. Even with continuity on offense for Ohio, their offensive production has taken a drastic dip since losing their star quarterback. As of writing, it looks like struggling backup CJ Harris will be giving it another go. In his limited starts, he has only thrown for one touchdown and one interception each.

As for the total, oddsmakers expect points to be scored at a premium as they opened the total at 44.5. This has been drastically bet down by bettors with the total now currently sitting at 41.5 in some shops. This calls for a run heavy game script, a type of game that will gesture a bleeding clock in our favor. Especially on Ohio’s end who was once a formidable offense, now currently playing as a shell of their former selves.

Ohio Vs. Wyoming Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Under 42

“What could have been” will be on full display when the Ohio offense takes to the field for one last time in 2022. Their offensive production has fallen off a cliff and plays a major reason for why I am taking the under in this game. With a few 42’s still out there as of writing, be sure to play this no lower than 41.

Kurtis Rourke is a NFL level talent and had the Ohio pass attack humming en-route to a MAC conference championship berth. This was a pass attack that ranked near top-20 in Off Pass Success Rate and 19th in Pass Down Success. Explosiveness came in moderation, but Rourke was able to pick apart opposing secondaries for consistent drives down the field.

Without him, the pass attack has been near non-existent with bottom ranked metrics in Pass Success. It actually is slightly surprising that CJ Harris is getting called upon, providing no spark in his limited stints. While he may have had only one interception so far, he put his team in harm’s way by throwing for far more turnover worthy plays that the defense couldn’t capitalize on.

Should they opt in for a more run heavy approach, then this plays even better for our under. Not only because it gives an opportunity for a consistently bleeding clock, but because Ohio is one of the worst rushing units in football. They finished the season ranked near dead last in both Off Rush Success and Explosiveness.

Ohio’s Sieh Bangura will be the feature back, rushing for nearly half of Ohio’s rush attempts. He ended the season with 940 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Even as a brutally anemic rushing unit, they may find some moderate success against Wyoming as their rush defense has been a thorn in their own side.

Ohio Vs. Wyoming Key Matchups

Can Ohio’s defense limit Wyoming’s scoring production?

Wyoming pass attack vs Ohio secondary

One of the main concerns of the under is the Ohio secondary’s ability to limit the opposing pass success. This is a unit that ranks near dead last in Finishing Drives as well as Def Success Rate. On the bright side, they do limit Pass Explosiveness, giving some breathing room knowing they can limit a back breaking big play.

While not ideal at defending the pass, they do benefit from Wyoming being a poor passing unit themselves. With Wyoming’s stud running back transferring, they will be forced to go heavier in the pass where they have brutally struggled.

Wyoming ended the season ranked near dead last in Off Pass Success, Pass Down Success, Pass Explosiveness, and Pass PPA. I am hard pressed to find a way where Wyoming’s pass game turns it around in this matchup, opting to go more run heavy with their backups which is never a recipe for success.

Verdict

In a game that will feature a heavy dose of the run as well as two brutally bad pass attacks, I will take the under at no lower than 41 in what will be a slugfest.

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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