Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs player prop picks & odds for the (01/24/24) matchup.
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Player Prop Picks
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs tips off this Wednesday at 9:30pm EST in San Antonio, TX as a home game for the Spurs. The Thunder are currently a 7-point favorite and -285 on the moneyline while the total is set at 242.5. Expect a battle between two rookie-of-the-year front runners in Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren in a game that has plenty of player prop value.
Victor Wembanyama Under 23.5 Points
Victor Wembwanyama has been as advertised this season, averaging over 20 ppg and seemingly going viral for a highlight every game. His freakish length and skill have changed the game at the big man position, and tonight he goes up against a similar style player in Chet Holmgren. It’s a two-horse race for the rookie of the year award with both of these gentlemen finding themselves at the top of the board.
As for how Victor will do, scoring may be a struggle for the Spurs rookie sensation as he faces a very good Thunder defense. The Thunder come into this contest ranked sixth in defensive efficiency and third in opposing effective field goal percentage per TeamRankings. Unlike most teams whose production takes a dip when on the road, the Thunder’s defensive metrics actually stay steady.
Moreover, Holmgren has the length to disrupt Victor when away from the block. Size is still an issue down low, but being able to slow down Victor’s drives helps play towards the under on his scoring prop. This prop has steadily dropped since opening, currently sitting as low as 22.5 in some shops. Be sure to line shop and get the best available number for more long-term success.
Victor Wembanyama Over 9.5 Rebounds
While Victor may struggle in the scoring department, his ability to rebound should be largely unaffected. The Thunder are an underwhelming rebounding team, ranking near dead last in total rebound percentage and rebound rate. Granted the Spurs are not much better as a whole, Victor has been their lone source of rebounding success.
Oklahoma City has also attempted the second least amount of three-point attempts in the NBA over their last three game, maximizing the number of shots they take around the basket. That anchors Wembanyama in the paint, using his length to try and disrupt their looks at the rim. This also increases his chances of hauling in a rebound, already being near the rim to bring one down.
Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 Threes Made
With the Thunder shifting their offense to more interior production as of late, their perimeter play has taken a dip. Even against a team that ranks second to last in Opposing Three Point Percentage, Chet Holmgren is in a position to continue to struggle as Victor Wembanyama is able to lessen the quality of looks from deep with his outrageous size and length.
Can’t stop watching this Victor Wembanyama block on Klay’s 3-point attempt 😳pic.twitter.com/axfydFbNer
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) October 21, 2023
An argument can be made that Holmgren would be better off increasing his attempts from deep as he is at a massive disadvantage when down low. This would stretch Wembanyama away from the rim, creating wider gaps in coverage and allowing off ball scorers to get higher quality looks at the rim with their cuts through the lane.
The reality is that the Thunder may look away from Holmgren early on in the contest, running more through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Shai will be in a position to routinely take his defender off the dribble, serving as the Thunder’s best course of offensive success in this matchup. With less attempts due to Shai and company taking on a heavier load comes with a higher chance of cashing this under.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points
As noted in the previous prop, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be in a great position to succeed in this matchup. Chet Holmgren is a floor spacing big who can force Victor away from the rim early on in possessions, giving Shai a higher quality look at the rim without Victor’s shot blocking prowess looming over him.
The Spurs have also struggled to smother opposing looks, ranking well below average in Effective Field Goal Percentage outside of the center position. Against a well-rounded starting unit like the Thunder who excel with floor spacing, shifting over to continue their coverage will be a struggle which opens up stop and pop opportunities for Shai to exploit as well.
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