Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma Betting Predictions (11/19/2022)

As we get closer to the end of the College Football regular season in week 12, a classic in-state rivalry will go underway between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Oklahoma Sooners.  Now normally, this game will be a major Big 12 matchup as we get closer to the end and was definitely expected to be entering the season, but both of these teams have slowly let the clutches of the Big 12 championship out of their grasp with disappointing losses.

Oklahoma has certainly undergone new changes with a new head coach in former Clemson DC Brent Venables and a new quarterback with Dillon Gabriel but they were still a preseason top-10 team and were expected to still be typical Oklahoma even with their new look.  It has not gone that way, as they have dropped five games all in Big 12 play and have fallen to 2-5 within the conference which is second last only to Iowa State.  Oklahoma State started the year 6-0 and were firmly within the top-10, but after an overtime loss to TCU, they dropped two more games to Kansas State and Kansas which has completely derailed their Big 12 Championship opportunities as TCU has it all but locked up with their undefeated year.  

Will Oklahoma find its footing with their new coach at the end of the year with a big win over a rivalry to ease the new coach in with the fanbase?  Will Oklahoma State finish the year strong after a little hiccup to still get a decent bowl placement?  Let’s break into this game’s picks and predictions:

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds

Despite the worst record, Oklahoma is entering this game as favorites over their in-state rivals.  They are currently -292 moneyline odds favorites in the Bedlam Series with a spread line of -7.5 points.  I am surprised that Oklahoma is entering as touchdown favorites over Oklahoma State, especially with the record difference but with this game being played in Norman, the Oklahoma crowd will sure be affecting the game.  Oklahoma does have five losses and while some of them have been close, there have been a couple where they were just completely blown out. 

The Sooners fell to Texas 49-0 in the Red River Showdown and fell to TCU 55-24.  They come into this game on a 2-game losing streak so bookmakers are assuming this team is due for a win to get to bowl-eligibility as they stand at 5-5 overall.  Many would expect they are due for their third Big 12 win in a major down year that is anything but normal for this Sooners’ team.  Oklahoma State have suffered their bad losses as well this year as they fell to Kansas State 48-0 and Kansas 37-16.  They started the year hot on that six-game run which featured a win over Baylor.  They also enter this game with a one-game winning streak over the Sooners from last game’s Bedlam Series.

The over/under total is currently 65.5 points which makes sense for this Big 12 matchup.  Oklahoma is averaging 31.9 PPG this season while Oklahoma State is currently averaging 34.9 PPG for the year.  So their point total averages falls right next to the total line.

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma Picks & Predictions

My pick: Oklahoma State +7.5 (-110)
Oklahoma is due for a loss and certainly think they could win, but I am certainly not gonna bet against Mike Gundy’s teams spread and think they will keep this close and possibly get the win against Oklahoma in a transitioning year.  I think the Cowboys are a better team overall even with the struggles they’ve had in recent games.  Oklahoma may have a stronger rushing game, but the Cowboys have a stronger passing game.  The Cowboys also have a good rushing defense.  The Sooners average nearly 220 rushing yards per game but Oklahoma State on average only lets up 163 yards in the run game so if they are able to slow down RB Eric Gray in this game who has 10 TDs on the year, I think the Cowboys have a good chance to win on the road.

I like the over in this game as I could see this game becoming a classic Big 12 Shootout.  These teams average around the total combined when it comes to scoring.  When it comes to points allowed per game, they both let up approximately 30 points.  It could fall right around the line but I think this game will let up for more scoring as both teams have had defensive struggles recently.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma St Key Matchup

Spencer Sanders vs. Oklahoma Defense
The biggest matchup will be Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders against the Oklahoma Defense.  Sanders has thrown for over 2,200 yards with 16 TDs with only 5 INTs.  The Cowboys may have had a rough patch of games but Sanders has not been the issue.  Oklahoma’s defense also allows over 200 passing yards per game while letting up over 400 yards per game so if the Cowboy’s defense gets back on track even after getting shut out by Kansas State a couple weeks ago, they should keep this close or even pull off the win.

Jack is a Hoosier by birth and Hoosier by alum. Full of hot takes but sharper predictions. Residing now in the Chicago area. When he's not chowing down on deep dish pizza and Italian beef, he's watching and betting sports. Junkie for everything CBB, NBA, NFL, CFB, and MLB. Here to feed you a system to follow that might even be better than the one Tom Brady was gifted his whole career.

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