Oklahoma State vs. Texas: Prediction & Odds (12/2/23)

On Saturday, the Big 12 Championship takes place in Arlington, Texas between Oklahoma State and Texas. In this article, find the latest betting odds for the game and our Oklahoma State Vs. Texas best bet which is Texas -14.5.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Vs. Texas Longhorns Prediction

Texas started the season as the favorite to win the Big 12 championship, and while a loss to Oklahoma clouded the picture for a bit, the Longhorns are right where they’re supposed to be. Texas is coming off a 57-7 drubbing of Texas Tech as they continue to look for statement wins in pursuit of a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, had a fascinating season that started with a 2-2 record and an eye-opening 26-point home loss to South Alabama. However, since that loss, the Cowboys have ripped off nine straight wins for the second time in the last six years. Head coach Mike Gundy deserves a ton of credit for turning this season around.

However, Oklahoma State is wholly outmatched in this game. The Cowboys’ offense is heavily reliant on Ollie Gordon, but Texas has one of the best run defenses in the country, allowing just 85 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth in the country. Gordon has 42 runs of 10+ yards, which ranks second in the country, but he’ll be bottled up here.

The Longhorns have a very disciplined defense led by Pete Kwiatkowski that has allowed just 17.2 points per game, the 12th-fewest in the country. Steve Sarkisian has hit the recruiting trail hard, and it has shown in an impressive collection of blue chip talent, especially along the defensive line.

Meanwhile, Texas’s offense has a huge edge. The Longhorns rank 6th in available yards and have a dominant offensive line that should bully an overmatched Oklahoma State defensive front. Last week against Texas Tech, the Longhorns had 302 rushing yards even with Jonathan Brooks out for the year.

It’s been a Cinderella season for an Oklahoma State team who most had low expectations for before the year, and I certainly didn’t see them making it to Arlington after the first month of the season. However, they’ve met their match in a Texas team still looking for every ounce of style points in a heated CFP race.

Sarkisian has reliably covered these big spreads as Texas has gone 5-2 ATS as favorites of between 10.5 to 21 points with him as the coach. Favorites have won 12 of the last 13 Big 12 championship games, and I don’t anticipate that trend stopping here. Bet on Texas winning in decisive fashion as they win their first Big 12 title since 2009.

Oklahoma State Vs. Texas Prediction: Texas -14.5

Oklahoma State Vs. Texas Best Odds

The spread for this matchup between Oklahoma State and Texas opened with Texas as 11.5-point favorites before it was steamed to the current line of -14.5. 14 is a very key number, so we could see some buyback at that spot, but it could also keep moving in the Longhorns’ favor. The over/under of 55.5 points leads to an implied score of about 35-21.

Oklahoma State Vs. Texas Key Matchups

I focused on these teams’ run games in my breakdown above, so let’s take a look at the quarterbacks in this game with our key matchups. Who has the upper hand between Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman and Texas’s Quinn Ewers? Let’s take a look.

Alan Bowman Vs. Texas’s Pass Defense

If Ollie Gordon can’t gain traction on the ground against this elite Texas run defense, the Cowboys will be reliant on Alan Bowman. While he has exceeded expectations after being mired in a quarterback battle earlier in the year, Bowman has an ugly eight turnover-worthy plays over the last three weeks despite facing three poor defenses in UCF, Houston, and BYU.

Texas’s biggest defensive strength is against the run, but they still rank top 20 in EPA and success rate against the pass. The Longhorns’ secondary hasn’t been perfect as they rank 66th in PFF’s coverage grades, but they make up for that with an 11th-ranked pass rush featuring dominant interior rushers T’Vondre Sweat, Byron Murphy II, and Alfred Collins.

Quinn Ewers Vs. Oklahoma State’s Pass Defense

Quinn Ewers hasn’t made the Heisman leap many were projecting before the season, but 17 passing touchdowns to just five interceptions is nothing to sneeze at. Ewers has led an offense that ranks top 15 in points per drive, yards per play, and available yards, and his presence is even more important with lead running back Jonathan Brooks out for the year.

Oklahoma State turned some heads when they hired Bryan Nardo, who had most recently served as the defensive coordinator at Gannon University. Overall, the Pokes’ defense has been solid, but they’ve shown some cracks lately and rank 103rd with 249.6 passing yards allowed per game. Don’t be shocked if Ewers has a strong outing on Saturday.

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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