Oklahoma vs. Baylor Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/10/22)

Oklahoma vs. Baylor Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/10/22)

The Big 12 Tournament is underway, with the Baylor Bears in the number two seed and the Oklahoma Sooners sitting in the seventh seed. These two teams face off for the third time in 2022, and many are wondering if the Bears can pull off a Big 12 Championship Title this year in college football and basketball. Last season, they were the NCAA Champions but failed to win the conference tournament. The Sooners have been up and down all season and are trying to prove themselves for the March Madness Tournament. A win over Baylor could nearly solidify a position in the ultimate tournament, but it is no easy feat to take down the #3 Bears. The teams are headed to Kansas City, Missouri, for the tournament, with the second round of games taking place on Thursday, March 10th, with the Sooners and Bears tipping-off at 6:00 PM CST on ESPN.

Oklahoma vs. Baylor Betting Odds

Walking into this matchup, it is apparent that the Baylor Bears are the favorite. The spread is placed with an -8.5 (-110) favor for the Bears, leaving the Sooners with +8.5 (-110). Looking at the history of the competition between both teams, I would say it’s a fair bet to put on Baylor. The teams have already met twice this season, resulting in two Baylor wins by over 10 points each. The Sooners have not shown significant enough growth to change their play against this Baylor team. The over/under has been set at 137.5 combined points. The Sooners average 68.8 points per game, and the Bears average 76.8 points per game. However, the Sooners have been increasingly scoring more points over the course of the season and hit 78 points against Kansas State in their final game of the season. Both teams are going to be playing very aggressive offense, so point values may be above average for both teams. One thing is for sure: The Baylor Bears are going to be moving onto the next round.

My Prediction: Baylor Wins 78-69, Baylor covers

Oklahoma Sooners Odds

The Oklahoma Sooners finished out their regular season with a 78-71 win over the Kansas State Wildcats, moving them up to seventh seed in the Big 12 Tournament. The final win moved their record up to 17-14 overall and 7-11 in conference play. The team is facing the reigning NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Champions, the Baylor Bears, in the very first round of the tournament. They lost to Baylor twice in the regular season by at least a ten-point margin. As of right now, the Sooners are not guaranteed a spot in the March Madness Tournament, so a good performance against this Baylor team could help knock them into a seed. However, a very poor performance could jeopardize them making the tournament.

Going up against the Baylor defense is not the Sooners’ strong suit. The Bears usually hold their opponents to 63 points per game, with a heavy guard around the perimeter. This may cause some problems for the sharpshooting senior guard from Waco, TX, Umoja Gibson. Gibson is arguably the best shooter in the Sooners lineup with an average of 12.3 points per game and 42.7% accuracy. He has really grown throughout the course of the season and put up 29 points in his most recent game. He was able to put up 30 points against the Texas Tech defense, which has similarities to the Baylor defensive strategy. However, against Baylor, he has not been able to score over 13 points. The Sooners should run a high-low offense with off-ball screens that can assist in keeping Gibson open around the perimeter and Tanner Groves under the basket for close shots.

Defensively, the Sooners need to secure the perimeter. When they last played Baylor, the Bears were able to sink a third of all of their shots beyond the three-point line. Keeping the perimeter open leaves too many deep shots open for LJ Cryer, who shoots 46% from beyond the three-point line. They will also have to keep a heavy defense on Adam Flagler in mid-range shots and drives to the basket if they want to stay a contender in this matchup.

Baylor Bears Odds

One of the most feared teams in college basketball is taking a big favorite position at the start of conference tournament play. The Baylor Bears are on their way to Kansas City, Missouri, for their first matchup on the road to a Big 12 Tournament title against the Oklahoma Sooners. The Bears are currently ranked #3 nationally and are looking to receive a number one seed in the March Madness Tournament. In order to keep their positioning, they need to continue to play at their level and not start playing poorly. The Sooners took down the Texas Tech Red Raiders and have lots of potential in their lineup to make this game close if Baylor gets cocky. This team has been calm and collected in most of their games, so as long as they keep their tempo, they’ll be moving onto round three of the Big 12 Tournament.

The key to defeating the Oklahoma Sooners is excessive defensive pressure. By placing traps in the corners and fighting for dominance under the net, the Sooners lose the sense of structure and begin to scramble. The Sooners have a turnover percentage of nearly 20%, which is the highest in the Big 12. They turn over the ball at least 15 times per game, which knocks out morale and esteem for their offense. The Bears are a naturally aggressive defense, so applying perimeter pressure should be easy for them. Locking down Umoja Gibson on the perimeter and Tanner Groves under the basket will be the easiest way to secure a victory for this program.

Offensively, the Bears are going to utilize the versatility of the triple threat of offensive powerhouses in their lineup. Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, and James Akinjo all average around 13 points per game. This team is very guard-oriented, so keeping the ball moving and pushing for versatility between all three players will nearly guarantee a win for the Bears.

Oklahoma vs. Baylor Picks and Predictions

When looking at this matchup, the most evident bet to make is the Baylor moneyline. The Bears are on a five-game win streak and have a more equipped offense to advance to the next round. It will be a total shock if they are unable to secure this win. The spread is a more delicate bet for this game. There have been many times the Sooners have kept games very close against top teams. I believe Baylor will be able to cover, but the Sooners always have unpredictability that worries me. 

Maggie is a current political science major at the University of Oklahoma and wants to pursue a Masters Degree in Sports Management in her future. She has followed the NFL, MLB, and NCAA Men's Basketball all of her life. She's been very excited with NLCS appearances by the Dodgers, but is still patiently waiting and crossing her fingers for an AFC Championship from her Cleveland Browns. She even named her dogs "Dodger" and "Jackie" in support of her favorite MLB team and the legendary Jackie Robinson.

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