Oklahoma vs. East Carolina: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/18/21)

Oklahoma vs. East Carolina Betting Odds

The Sooners and Pirates will meet in an unlikely non-conference matchup when they battle in the Myrtle Beach Invitational.

Oklahoma is off to a 2-0 start behind an offensive explosion. Porter Moser and Tanner Groves seem to be easing into their new home very nicely.

Meanwhile, ECU is 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread (ATS) with two straight wins and covers. The Pirates do a lot of things right, but this will be their stiffest test yet.

The Pirates are, however, catching 13 points at home in this game. But do they have value as a traditional home underdog?

Oklahoma Sooners Betting Odds 

The Sooners haven’t played anybody, but they are scorching hot on offense.

Oklahoma is currently second in 2-point shooting (68.9%) and fifth in effective field goal percentage (64.8%). The Sooners are scoring 1.000 points per possession in the half-court (90th percentile) and a whopping 1.576 points per possession in transition (98th percentile).

But Oklahoma doesn’t like to run the floor too much, as they rank outside the top-300 in tempo. Moser’s Loyola-Chicago teams always played slow, tending to play through their big man Cameron Krutwig.

Well, Tanner Groves has stepped into the big man role quite well. The Eastern Washington transfer gained fame when he dropped 35 points on Kansas in the NCAA Tournament last season, and he’s beginning to live up to his potential.

Through two games, Groves has averaged 18/7/2 on 60%/40% shooting splits. He’s already been deadly in the pick-and-roll too, averaging 1.231 points per possession on 13 rolls (92nd percentile).

Groves has stepped into Norman and established himself as the best player on the team, and that’s going to do wonders for Oklahoma this season.

The question is if he can continue this dominance against the upper-echelon competition. We’re going to learn that soon, as Oklahoma enters a non-conference gauntlet in December (UCF, Florida, Butler, Arkansas).

East Carolina Pirates Betting Odds

 The Pirates are once again predicted to finish last in the AAC. But I’m optimistic about ECU’s outlook.

These Pirates were 7-1 last season before COVID ravaged their roster. The Pirates were on the sidelines for weeks at a time, unable to practice or play, and lost 10 of their final 11 games.

But this season, the Pirates return four starters and brought in some new, intriguing names into the fold.

And while coach Joe Dooley lost the team’s leading scorer in Jayden Gardner, this is a team that led the nation in assist-to-field goal ratio. They’ll share the ball and run a lot of motion, and I’m expecting new names to step up on offense.

Moreover, instead of exploding on offense, look for the Pirates to play solid on defense and limit mistakes on offense. They finished last season fourth in the AAC in turnover rate (19.4%) and are currently 16th in the country in 2-point defense (37.5%).

I think ECU crawls out of the AAC basement this season.

Prediction and Pick

My Pick: East Carolina +13 (-115 at DraftKings)

I love East Carolina to keep this game close.

The most important factor in betting on November college basketball is experience. Well, East Carolina has the edge in minutes continuity (58.6% to 31.2%), bringing back four starters to the Sooners’ two.

But rather than just betting experience, I’m betting the number. The Sooners are going to play very slow (304th in Tempo) and try to grind you down on the inside. Catching 13 points in a Rock Fight is great value, especially when the total is just 135.

Moreover, I’m not sure how much success Oklahoma will have on the interior. As mentioned, the Pirates are currently top-20 nationally in 2-point defense and have the size with 7-foot-0 center Ludgy Debaut to contain Groves.

KenPom makes this spread just 11, which gives us some value at the current line. I love the Pirates in this spot, and believe Oklahoma wins by single digits.