Oklahoma vs. Texas: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/9/21)

Oklahoma vs. Texas Betting Odds

The Red River Showdown has arrived. This will be the 116th edition of this rivalry, but it’s one of the more unique versions of it.

Texas and Oklahoma both shocked the college football world by joining the SEC this last offseason. While conference play hasn’t quite kicked off yet, neither team has had the smoothest start to their SEC careers.

Oklahoma is 5-0, but they’re just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) and fans have not shown Spencer Rattler much love.

Meanwhile, Texas is 4-1 with wins over TCU and Texas Tech. But they took a tough, 40-21 loss to Arkansas in Week 2.

However, the Longhorns are also 3-0 ATS at home this season, and Oklahoma is laying three points on the road in this showdown.

Oklahoma Sooners Odds

Oklahoma should be getting more love than they are.

Yes, the wins against Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia, and Kansas State were all ugly. This team should be blowing teams out. But, through five games the Sooners are -5 in turnover differential.

Otherwise, they’ve been efficient in most areas of the game. They rank 11th in Offensive Success Rate, 16th in Defense Success Rate, and grade out as PFF’s ninth-best overall team.

Rattler might not be getting enough credit either. His offensive line ranks 98th in Line Yards and 47th in preventing Havoc.

But he’s also PFF’s top-graded college quarterback when pressured. He’s completed 64.3% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt in pressure situations, and he’s completed 75.6% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt when blitzed.

However, when the pocket has been kept clean, he’s been jumpy. While he’s still completed a high percentage of his passes, he’s made six Turnover Worthy Plays in a clean pocket and four when he’s not blitzed.

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On the other end, the Sooners have been elite up front. Behind a defensive line that ranks 7th in Line Yards and 12th in Stuff Rate, the Sooners are allowing just 80 rush yards per game on only 2.8 yards per carry.

The pass defense is slightly more suspect. The pass rush is good, but the defense ranks just 122nd in Passing Success Rate.

Texas Longhorns Odds

Once Texas pulled Hudson Card and brought in Casey Thompson, this offense has transformed itself.

Texas had struggled in those first two games, specifically against Arkansas.

But now, with Thompson’s dual-threat and zone-read ability, the Longhorn offense can’t be stopped. They scored 58 against Rice, 70 against Texas Tech, and 32 against TCU. They now rank in the top 10 in points per game (43.8) and in the top 25 in both Standard Downs Success Rate and Passing Downs Success Rate.

While the offense has figured it out, Pete Kwiatkowski and the defense are totally lost. This defense stinks, ranking outside of the top 100 in almost every meaningful statistic, including:

  • Defensive Rush Success Rate (109th)
  • Pass Rush (103rd)
  • Havoc (113th)

Texas is good, and Casey Thompson may have saved their season. But this team won’t be winning an SEC championship with that defense.

Prediction and Pick 

My Pick: Oklahoma -3.5

Although the majority of the money is on Texas (62% of the tickets, 52% of the handle), the line continues to move Oklahoma’s way. We characterize this as reverse line movement, and it’s a profitable bet signal.

However, outside of the betting market, Oklahoma is just a more well-rounded team.

The Longhorns’ offense has come around, but there isn’t a single good quality about this Texas defense. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma offense can go toe-to-toe with Texas, but they pair that with a formidable front seven.

If Rattler avoids turnovers in clean pockets, the Sooners will win the Red River Showdown while covering comfortably.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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