Ole Miss vs. Georgia kicks off Saturday (11/11/23) at 7 p.m. EST in Athens, Georgia as a home game for the Bulldogs. Get Ole Miss vs. Georgia predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on the over 58.5 as points should be scored in abundance.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Prediction
After a cakewalk of a schedule to start the year, the Georgia Bulldogs are now in the midst of a gauntlet. They come off a close win against the revamped Missouri Tigers and now play host to the Ole Miss Rebels, who bring in a high-powered offense. That makes for a worrisome sandwich spot as the Tennessee Volunteers are on deck, opening the door for an upset with the Bulldogs defense regressing.
The Georgia defense struggles can be attributed to a few factors, starting with their inability to limit points when opposing offenses enter into scoring territory. The Bulldogs currently rank 70th in Def Points per Opportunity, feeding right into an Ole Miss offense that thrives in the red zone, ranking 10th in that department. Georgia’s red-zone struggles mainly reside in stopping the run, giving the Ole Miss ground game life. The Rebels won’t have to solely rely on the pass attack inside the 20.
The Georgia defense has been unable to generate havoc and limit explosiveness. That spells potential disaster against Ole Miss, a team that thrives in connecting on the big play. The Rebels rank 14th in Explosiveness and are capable of flipping the field at a moment’s notice. When in scoring territory, points should come at a high rate as they exploit the Georgia red-zone defense.
Taking care of the ball has been an issue for Ole Miss with a low Havoc Allowed mark. That is mainly due to airing it out. Against a “weak” Georgia rush defense, Ole Miss can turn toward star running back Quinshon Judkins. The Rebels have a higher chance to take care of the ball on the ground, rather than through the air. By keeping drives alive and getting a high chance of entering into scoring territory, Ole Miss can certainly do its part toward the over.
For Georgia, it should be business as usual when they have the ball. The Bulldogs ne- look offense should be able to shred an average Ole Miss pass defense. Since the injury to tight end Brock Bowers, the Georgia offense has reshaped to a more downfield pass attack. They get their playmakers out in the open field instead of their typical conservative approach. This also opens up the ground game for their stable of backs to churn out chunks at a time, continuing to shred the weak Ole Miss explosive rush defense.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Prediction: Over 58.5
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Best Odds
Even in a dangerous sandwich spot, oddsmakers still have this as the Bulldogs game to lose by opening Georgia as a -10.5 favorite. This is a drastic decrease from the lookahead line, originally opening as a -19.5 favorite. Should this cross through the key number of 10 then the Bulldogs may be a play on the number.
As for the total, oddsmakers think points will be scored at a very quick pace. Tthey opened the number at 56.5. Bettors believe this number opened too low, backing the over up to as high as 59 as of this writing. The line movement makes sense as Georgia’s regressing defense opens up the door for Ole Miss to do its part toward the over while Georgia should have no issue scoring at will against the weak Rebel defense.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Key Matchups
Can Jaxson Dart crack the Georgia secondary?
Jaxson Dart vs. Georgia Secondary
It won’t be enough for Quinshon Judkins to do it himself; he will need the help of Jaxson Dart and the pass attack in order to open the field for downfield progression. Dart has been capable of doing just that by ranking 23rd in Pass Success Rate, 15th in Explosiveness, and ninth in PPA.
Consecutive darts from Jaxson Dart 🎯 pic.twitter.com/VaXYQbfTQS
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 4, 2023
The issue is that the Georgia secondary has continued to be elite by clicking in at eighth in Def Pass Success Rate, ninth in PPA and 29th in Explosiveness. What’s intriguing is that these marks come against a very low Pass Play Rate, potentially regressing as the quality of quarterback play increases. Brady Cook didn’t necessarily have his best game but was still able to move the ball down the field against the Georgia defense.