Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/25/21)

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds

The Egg Bowl is back, this time in a regular-season finale on Thanksgiving Day.

While you might be inclined to stick to NFL football on Turkey Day, I’d highly recommend you throw this game on a second screen. Mike Leach’s air-raid offense will be facing Heisman candidate Matt Corral, so we’re in for a high-flying affair.

To attest to that, the total is sitting up above 65. But who has the edge against the spread in this one?

Mississippi State has covered in three of the last four meetings, but is it worth betting them again?

Ole Miss Rebels Odds

The story of this year’s Rebels has been Corral.

Among qualified quarterbacks, Corral grades out as PFF’s 20th-best. However, he does more than just throw the ball.

In addition to his 3000 yards and 19 touchdowns through the air, he’s added over 500 yards and 10 scores on the ground. Corral leads an offense that has the perfect mix of Success Rate and Explosiveness, generating over 36 points per game as a result.

The Rebels offense ranks inside the top-20 in both Success Rate and Explosiveness. Moreover, Ole Miss ranks second in Rushing Success Rate while also being ninth in Big Play percentage. The Rebels will beat you in all different ways on offense.

The defense is a mess. The Rebels rank outside the top-80 in every meaningful defensive statistic sans Pass Rush. Moreover, they rank just 75th in PFF’s tackling grades, pointing to an innate ability to not defend.

Luckily, Corral has carried Lane Kiffin to a 9-2 record and an 8-3 against the spread (ATS) record. But the defense will have to make a few stops against a Leach-led offense.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds

Will Rogers is one of the best quarterbacks in college football.

The clinic he put on against Auburn was one of the greatest performances I’ve ever seen. Rogers completed 44-of-55 passes for 415 yards and six touchdowns without throwing an interception. He led the Bulldogs back from a 28-to-3 deficit to win in dominant fashion.

Rogers sometimes gets flack because of the air-raid scheme, which allows him to compile counting statistics. But he does it with incredible efficiency, and the Bulldogs are a true three-down offense as a result.

Rogers has achieved a 34:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has posted just a 1.8% turnover-worthy play percentage. He’s broken Dak Prescott passing records, and he grades out as PFF’s eighth-best quarterback.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs rank inside the top-10 in Standard Downs Success Rate and in the top-five in Passing Downs Success Rate. So, even though the Bulldogs pass the ball on over 75% of their play calls, Rogers moves the ball consistently both in front and behind the sticks.

Meanwhile, the defense can probably be somewhat effective against Corral. The Bulldogs are top-20 in Big Play prevention, top-30 in defensive Line Yards, top-40 in defensive Rush Success Rate, and top-50 in defensive Pass Success Rate.

Prediction and Pick

My pick: Mississippi State -2 (-110 at DraftKings)

As such, I’m ready to back the Bulldogs at home in the Egg Bowl.

This will be a shootout, no doubt, but Rogers has shown he can hang with the best of the best in those scenarios. The methodical air-raid is too consistent to not put points on the board, especially against a defense of this low caliber.

Meanwhile, Corral and Ole Miss are having a special season, but I don’t trust the composition of the team. I’d much rather back the better all-around team, especially one at home.

If I’m getting the Bulldogs at less than a field goal at home, I’ll be on that side.