Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State: Odds & Prediction (11/23/23)

Ole Miss and Mississippi St get set to face off in this year’s Egg Bowl which kicks off at 7:30 PM EST on Thanksgiving Day in Starkville, MS. Let’s dive into the odds and best bets for Thursday night’s rivalry game.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Prediction & Best Bet

Ole Miss has been the SEC’s version of Penn State this season, beating everyone other than Alabama and Georgia. It shouldn’t be too difficult for the Rebels to blow past this year’s disappointing Mississippi State team.

Much has changed since Mike Leach and the Bulldogs won the Egg Bowl last season, and none of it has been positive. Mississippi State was a team in disarray when Zach Arnett was fired less than two weeks ago, and it’s tough to tell from a win over Southern Miss whether the return of QB Will Rogers has solved the offense’s problems.

Rogers faces a tough Ole Miss pass-rush on Thursday, which could set the offense back in a game that will require the Bulldogs to put plenty of points on the board. Mississippi State is 0-3 when allowing 3+ sacks this season.

Ole Miss’ rushing attack is in for a challenge with Mississippi State’s run defense, but Jaxson Dart and the passing game could pick up the slack with the Bulldogs allowing a nearly 70 percent completion rate against opposing quarterbacks. With Mississippi State looking ahead to a new era and Ole Miss motivated after last year’s Egg Bowl defeat, a double-digit victory is absolutely within reach for Lane Kiffin’s team.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Prediction & Best Bet: Ole Miss -10

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds

Ole Miss enters the Egg Bowl as a decisive road favorite. The Rebels are favored by 10 points and sit -385 on the moneyline, with the over/under at 55.5 points.

Mississippi State recently got a boost when Will Rogers returned from injury, but the issues that led to the firing of first-year coach Zach Arnett haven’t disappeared. Will home-field advantage and Rogers’ presence be enough to stay competitive in this rivalry game?

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Saturday’s game between Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State.

Quinshon Judkins vs. Mississippi State Run Defense

It’s been a tough year all-around for the Bulldogs, but their run defense has been pretty solid even by SEC standards. Mississippi State is allowing 3.9 yards per carry, sixth out of 14 teams in the conference, and the defense has allowed only one 100-yard rushing performance by an individual all season.

Ole Miss has struggled to take that next step this season because Quinshon Judkins has been far too inconsistent. Judkins improved after a slow start to the year, rushing for 100+ yards in four of five games midseason, but he’s been held under four yards per carry in each of his last two games. Nearly half of Judkins’ games have come in under four yards per carry.

While the talent advantage could be enough for an Ole Miss win regardless of the running game, Rebels will need more efficiency from their running game if they want to outclass their rivals on the road.

Ole Miss Pass-Rush vs. Mississippi State Offensive Line

Will Rogers is 4-3 as a starter this season, and while three of those wins came against non-power conference opponents, it’s tough to ignore that he’s 0-3 when absorbing three or more sacks. Mississippi State has allowed 24 sacks on the year, and 11 of them came during a three-game stretch of losses to LSU, Alabama, and South Carolina. Can the Bulldogs withstand pressure from Ole Miss?

The Rebels are averaging nearly three sacks per game and even got both Jalen Milroe and Jayden Daniels 3+ times. If Ole Miss is all over Rogers, particularly after the shoulder injury kept him out for more than a month, it could be a long day for a Mississippi State offense that looked lost without him.

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