Ole Miss and Texas A&M are both coming off demoralizing losses, ensuring one of these programs will be heading into November on a losing streak. The Rebels saw their undefeated season slip away against LSU, getting shut out in the second half, while the Aggies struggled out of the gate against South Carolina and dropped their third consecutive game. Who’s due for a bounce-back performance?
Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this Saturday night matchup in College Station.
Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Odds
Ole Miss is a narrow road favorite at -135 on the moneyline. The Rebels are favored by 2 points, and the over/under is set at 55 points.
Even after an unexpectedly ugly loss to LSU, this line has shifted slightly in the direction of the Rebels over the past week. Texas A&M was one of this past weekend’s biggest disappointments, taking the progress made against Alabama and throwing it all away with a listless offensive performance. It feels like the Aggies are going to need a huge defensive day for their standards if they want to win this game and snap their losing streak.
Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Prediction & Pick
Neither of these teams have a terrific offense, but Ole Miss has at least been able to rack up points with its strong running game. Texas A&M, on the other hand, is still searching for answers on the offensive side of the ball.
The Aggies don’t have a quarterback locked in for this week – it’ll be either Haynes King or true freshman Conner Weigman (neither looked great against South Carolina) – and the running game hasn’t been a dominant force, either. After they were humbled by LSU, I’ll take Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss to bounce back and handle a much less potent offense.
Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Key Matchups
Texas A&M has been one of the nation’s most disappointing teams, but I’d caution against instantly ruling them out. The Aggies’ defense played very well in wins over Miami and Arkansas as well as in the narrow loss to Alabama.
All of those games were at home, so there’s clearly somewhat of a home-field advantage here, but Texas A&M also suffered a 17-14 loss to Appalachian State at home. The issues on display in that game still haven’t been solved.
The quarterback situation is unstable. There’s always the potential Weigman impresses if he makes his first start, but it’s more likely he’d have growing pains against a solid Rebels defense. The running game hasn’t done enough to pick up the passing game. Devon Achane is a dynamic player but has been considerably less efficient on the ground than he was last season, dropping from 7 yards/carry to 5.4.
Texas A&M hasn’t scored more than 24 points since Week 1 against Sam Houston State, and that probably won’t work against this well-balanced Ole Miss team. The matchup sets up well for the Rebels’ defense, which played well against Kentucky earlier this month but struggled against Auburn and LSU.
For Ole Miss, the key to winning this game will be avoiding mistakes in the passing game. Quinshon Judkins has quietly been one of the nation’s most consistent running backs this season and should continue to deliver for this offense. Jaxson Dart’s inconsistency is where we saw Ole Miss fail against LSU.
Dart has five interceptions in his last four games and didn’t play well at all against Kentucky or LSU. The best course of action may be for the Rebels to run the offense how they did against Auburn, when Dart completed only nine passes but they scored 48 points. Ole Miss ran for 448 yards in that game.
If the Rebels can get some kind of ground game going and take the ball out of Dart’s hands, they’re well-positioned. That might just require them not to fall into an early hole.