On Saturday (10/28/23), we’ll watch the Arizona Wildcats play host to the Oregon State Beavers in an intriguing Pac-12 matchup. In this article, find the latest betting odds for the game and a full matchup preview. In addition, find our best bet which is Arizona +3.5.
Oregon State Beavers Vs. Arizona Wildcats Prediction
I’ve been very impressed with the head coaching job Jedd Fisch is doing at Arizona this season. The Wildcats are 4-3, and their last two results were very impressive. They blew out Washington State 44-6 in Pullman, had a triple overtime loss to USC at the Coliseum, and gave Washington all it could handle in a seven-point loss.
Oregon State has also been running hot as they won three straight games prior to their bye week. Jonathan Smith’s team continues to have the same identity of a heavy rushing attack and strong defense. Running back Damien Martinez leads the team with 676 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
This is a tough matchup for Martinez as Arizona ranks second in rushing EPA/play allowed. If Oregon State doesn’t have the same level of rushing success as it is used to on the road, D.J. Uiagalelei could find himself behind the sticks against a defense that has given Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams issues.
Meanwhile, the Beavers’ run defense has left a lot to be desired. They rank 112th in rushing success rate allowed. That’s a problem against an Arizona team with a deep backfield led by Jonah Coleman. The Wildcats rank 5th in rushing success rate on offense.
True freshman quarterback Noah Fifita has been very impressive for Arizona, and I expect that to continue coming out of the bye week, especially at home. Arizona wasn’t expected to be bowling this season, but they are well on their way. I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull off the outright upset here to help in that goal.
Oregon State Vs. Arizona Prediction: Arizona +3.5
Oregon State Beavers Vs. Arizona Wildcats Best Odds
The spread for this game currently sits at 3.5 points with the road Oregon State Beavers as the favorite. If you’re betting Arizona to cover, try to grab the +3.5 while you can, as that’s a key number. The total for this game sits at 56.5 points, with a lean to the under.
Oregon State Beavders Vs. Arizona Wildcats Key Matchups
There are some fascinating matchups in play. Here, I break down the key ones that will help determine the winner.
Noah FIfita Vs. Oregon State’s Pass Defense
Arizona’s freshman quarterback Noah Fifita has been very impressive this season, and he might have won the starting job over Jayden de Laura with his recent games. In that narrow loss against USC, he went toe to toe with Caleb Williams, finishing with more than 300 passing yards and five touchdowns.
The strength of the Oregon State defense is against the pass, where they rank 24th in EPA/play allowed. The Beavers are also 18th in PFF’s coverage grades, and they’re arguably the best pass defense Fifita has faced all year. His ability to maintain his poise and continue his successful season will determine if Arizona can pull off the upset.
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) October 16, 2023
Damien Martinez Vs. Arizona’s Run Defense
Damien Martinez has been one of the most productive running backs in college football this season, and he has forced 33 missed tackles. Martinez runs behind an excellent offensive line that ranks second in PFF’s run blocking grades. Plugging the gaps and meeting Martinez at the line of scrimmage will be crucial for Arizona’s defense.
Arizona does have one of the most stout run defenses in the Pac-12 as they rank second in rushing EPA/play allowed. You can certainly argue that the Wildcats haven’t faced an offensive line quite like this one, but I believe they can hold up enough to keep Arizona in the game. Look for leading tackler Jacob Manu to make a big impact.
Damien Martinez and the Beavers establishing the run early pic.twitter.com/8vKCaxopxr
— T.J. Mathewson (@tjmathewson) September 30, 2023