On Friday (11/24/23), Oregon hosts Oregon State in a thrilling Pac-12 matchup. In this article, find a full preview of the matchup and the latest odds. In addition, find our Oregon State Vs. Oregon best bet which is Oregon State +13.
Oregon State Beavers Vs. Oregon Ducks Prediction
In one of the most bitter college football rivalries in the country, the Civil War adds another chapter to its story that dates back to 1894. This game carries massive implications in the Pac-12 title race, which is only fitting as it’s the last time these teams will meet as members of the conference. Oregon clinches a spot in Las Vegas with a win, while Oregon State would need some help from Arizona State, who’s facing Arizona.
Oregon is nearly unblemished this season, with their lone loss coming in a nailbiter against Washington. They’re looking for revenge here after losing to Oregon State in Corvallis last season. In his second season at the helm, Dan Lanning has turned Oregon into a national title contender, but Oregon State is poised to give them a tough time here.
Bo Nix is a Heisman frontrunner with 35 touchdowns to just two interceptions this season, but over 65% of his passes have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and Oregon State has the secondary to prevent Oregon’s receivers from generating chunk yardage after the catch. Last week, the Beavers held Michael Penix Jr. to just 13 of 28 passing for 162 yards.
Meanwhile, Oregon State has the run game to challenge what has been, at times, a shaky Oregon front seven. The Ducks are just 73rd in defensive line yards and 46th in rushing EPA/play allowed this year, and they don’t have a monstrous defensive line. Oregon State ranks third in rushing success rate behind PFF’s top-ranked run-blocking offensive line in the FBS. Damien Martinez has 1,147 yards and nine touchdowns behind that line.
For Oregon State, the approach revolves around limiting Oregon’s possessions with their run game and limiting the damage Bo Nix can do with their stout secondary. Oregon should get the win here to advance to the Pac-12 title game, but their in-state rivals won’t make things easy on them, and I like the value of Oregon State catching nearly two touchdowns.
Oregon State Vs. Oregon Prediction: Oregon State +13.5
Oregon State Vs. Oregon Best Odds
The spread for this game opened with Oregon as 14-point home favorites before action hit Oregon State, driving it down to 13.5 points at the time of writing. The total for this game sits at 62.5 points, leading to an implied score of around 38-24.
Oregon State Vs. Oregon Key Matchups
When these rivals face off on Friday, they will both have some elite players in action. Let’s break down some of the key matchups that will decide the winner of this iteration of the Civil War.
Damien Martinez Vs. Oregon’s Run Defense
Oregon State made a big move to increase their passing upside with the transfer addition of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, but it’s still all about the run game for the Beavers. Damien Martinez is having an excellent season and ranks third in the FBS with 39 runs of 10+ yards. He’s a big play waiting to happen and can break off those chunk plays behind an elite offensive line led by right tackle Taliese Fuaga, a future NFL first-round pick.
Oregon hasn’t faced a runner as potent as Martinez all season, and I’m looking forward to seeing how their run defense holds up. They’ve given up a high rate of explosive rushes this year, ranking 81st in that regard, and Martinez had 15 carries for 103 yards against this defense last year. Safety Evan Williams, who transferred from Fresno State before the season, leads the team with 28 run stops per PFF, and will be asked to play downhill in the box in this game.
Damien Martinez if you don’t know find out. pic.twitter.com/rHnO64ljq7
— C4 (@PAPAxC4) November 19, 2023
Bo Nix Vs. Oregon State’s Secondary
There isn’t a more accurate passer in the country than Bo Nix as he leads the FBS with an 85.6% adjusted completion rate per PFF. Nix also has just a 0.7% turnover-worthy play rate, the lowest in the FBS, with just three such throws all season. He consistently delivers accurate strikes to Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson, allowing them to generate big plays after the catch. Both receivers average over 3 yards per route run, ranking top 15 in the country.
Oregon State’s secondary held up extremely well against Michael Penix Jr., one of the most talented passers in the country, last week. Cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Ryan Cooper Jr. combined to allow just four catches on 16 total targets while safety Kitan Oladapo flew around the field and made plays. The Beavers will need more of the same from their secondary this week to keep Nix in check.
404 yards, 6 TDs, & 0 INT 💪
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) November 21, 2023