Oregon Vs. Utah: Prediction & Odds (10/28/23)

Oregon vs. Utah kicks off Saturday at 3:30pm EST in Salt Lake City as a home game for the Utes. Oregon is currently a -6.5 favorite and -250 on the moneyline while the total is set at 49.5. Read on for more Oregon vs. Utah best bets and predictions as Oregon looks to get the outright win as a valuable parlay moneyline piece.

Oregon Vs. Utah Prediction

Utah’s massive win over the USC Trojans was shrouded in sadness as news broke after that the Utes are shutting down star quarterback Cam Rising for the rest of the season. That hasn’t been an issue so far this season as the Utes are currently 6-1, but they are now going to take on one of their tougher defensive tests when the Oregon Ducks come rolling into town.

Utah’s anemic offense was able to find success against USC in its last game as the Trojans field a horrific defense. USC’s inability to find any sort of defensive success masked the Utes poor offense as they rank 87th in Off Success Rate, 118th in Points per Opportunity, and 104th in Explosiveness. That same success will not come so easily against the Oregon defense as they serve as a far greater challenge than what USC provided.

The Utes offensive struggles are in large part steeped in their inability to generate any sort of production through the air, ranking near dead last in Off Pass Success Rate, Off Pass PPA and Off Pass Explosiveness. This has forced them to turn toward a heavier dose of the run, trying to find success against stacked boxes as opposing defenses have no fear of Utah being able to throw over the top of them.

This plays right into Oregon’s hands as stopping the run has been their weak point for their defense. While the Ducks rank top-30 in Def Pass PPA and Success Rate, their defensive rush metrics take a dip. When trying to stop the run, Oregon ranks 49th in Def Rush PPA, 57th in Def Rush Success Rate and 56th in Def Rush Explosiveness. Expect those metrics to creep up as they can cheat their second level of the defense up in an effort to plug the running lanes while keeping their secondary on an island.

Keeping the ground game as the common theme, Oregon is in a good position to continue to find rush success as Utah will not get the same benefit of being allowed to stack the box. With Bo Nix being a capable passer, Utah’s defense will be forced to be in a standard scheme and have to defend a Oregon rush attack that ranks first in Rush PPA and second in Rush Success Rate.

Oregon Vs. Utah Prediction & Best Bet: Oregon ML parlay piece

Oregon Vs. Utah Best Odds

This game has seen a drastic shift in the spread with the lookahead line originally sitting at Oregon +1.5, eventually reopening at -3.5. Since reopening, bettors have smashed Oregon all the way up to the key number of -7. This game should mirror the Utes loss to Oregon State, struggling to contain the run at a consistent rate while their own offense crumbled against a stout defense.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 52. Bettors believe that number opened a tad too high, backing the under down to as low as 48 as of writing. That’s in direct correlation to the belief Oregon’s defense will shut down the Utes offense, meaning points will come at a premium in favor of the under.

Oregon Vs. Utah Key Matchups

Will Bo Nix be able to continue to find success through the air against the Utes secondary?

Bo Nix Vs. Utah Secondary

While Oregon’s ground game will be in a good position to succeed as previously mentioned, Bo Nix will be the difference maker as he tries to generate pass production against a Utah defense that ranks second in the nation in Def Pass Success Rate and 11th in Def Pass PPA.

“Checkdown Merchant” Bo Nix pic.twitter.com/UWD9VYhd7v

— Austin 🦆 (@deviousduck_) October 17, 2023

Where this gets interesting in Bo Nix’s favor is that Utah may have to sell out in an effort to stop the Ducks ground game. When stacked, that leaves the outside wide open for Nix to pick apart as he throws outside the numbers. This creates potential explosive plays, taking advantage of a Utes defense who ranks a lowly 93rd in Def Pass Explosiveness.

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