Get Oregon vs. Washington player prop picks & odds for the (12/01/23) matchup.
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Oregon vs. Washington Player Prop Picks
Oregon vs. Washington kicks off Friday at 8 p.m. EST in Las Vegas as the host site for the Pac -2 Conference Championship. Oregon is a -9.5 favorite and -355 on the moneyline while the total is set at 65.5. Expect Bucky Irving to find success on the ground while Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr take a step back in the pass attack, all giving value as player props for this Oregon vs. Washington matchup.
Bucky Irving Over 90.5 Rushing Yards
The ground game may not be the focal point of the Oregon offense as they only rank 98th in Rush Play Rate, but it is in as good a position as any to succeed against the Washington front seven. That puts Bucky Irving in the spotlight as he is one of the better open-field runners who thrives in shedding contact and churning out extra yards after contact.
In the limited stints that Oregon has run the ball, they have done it at a very successful rate. The Ducks rank second in Rush Success Rate and Rush PPA. They struggle to break off the long run, checking in at 51st in Rush Explosiveness. But Irving will be in a position to constantly churn out yards after bursting through the trenches.
Especially against this Washington front seven as defending the run has been a major weakness. The Huskies rank 129th in Def Rush Success Rate, meaning that opposing running backs have excelled in run-play sets. Factor in a potential run-heavy game script with a comfortable lead as the spread implies and Irving should have no issue with clearing this mark.
Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown
It’s normally wise to try and avoid the heaviest juiced prop in this market, but it’s honestly not juiced high enough as Irving will be the direct recipient of a rushing touchdown when Oregon enters into scoring position. When inside the 20, he’s in a great spot to punch one in against a Washington front seven who ranks 128th in Def Rush PPA.
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2023
Capitalizing on scoring opportunities is vital against this Washington offense as Penix and Co. can match that score at a moment’s notice. While they may struggle to do so against this improved Oregon defense, it’s still worth playing it safe by handing it off to Irving rather than Bo Nix potentially throwing into a turnover worthy play.
It’s also worth mentioning the importance of line shopping. Especially when dealing with player props as sportsbooks can offer vastly different numbers. Bucky Irving’s scoring prop is already heavily juiced, making it even more important to find the best number. This prop is as high as -330 in some shops yet can be found as low as -250. Always wise to have as many outs as possible in an attempt to always bet the best number.
Bo Nix Under 322.5 Passing Yards
With Oregon potentially opting into a heavier dose of the run, that directly correlates to the under on Bo Nix passing yards. To no fault of his own, but the less pass attempts the higher chance of him clearing this under. Especially with the ground game taking time off the clock, as well as Washington being able to sustain drives down the field as well.
Washington’s secondary has also improved its coverage, climbing up to as high as 52nd in Def Pass Success Rate and 14th in Def Pass PPA. Being able to defend the short throw against Bo Nix is vital as that is where he backs his success through the air. His passing metrics back up that sentiment, ranking first in Pass Success Rate yet a lowly 112th in Pass Explosiveness.
Michael Penix Jr Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
Washington’s offense may have found success in their first game against Oregon, but teams have now found the blueprint of how to slow down their offense after their stinker against Arizona State. The Sun Devils showed that anchoring your linebackers in coverage gives Penix fits, stalling out their offense for a majority of the contest.
Expect the same heavy coverage from Oregon’s defense as they just rush four and drop everyone else back in coverage. This smothers the area of the field correlated to Pass Success Rate, a style of offense that Penix thrives in. With his short throws passing lanes covered, downfield success will be tough to come by which lessens the chance of him clearing this touchdown mark.