On Saturday (10/14/23), Oregon faces Washington in a much anticipated Pac 12 battle. In this article, find a full preview of this fascinating game as well as the latest betting odds. In addition, find our prediction for the game which is Over 67.5 Points.
Oregon Vs. Washington Prediction – College Football Week 7
In the final season of the Pac 12, Oregon and Washington have dominated the conversation as two of the best teams in the country – they’re ranked 7th and 8th, respectively, in the latest AP Poll. Now, they face off in a game that could have future College Football Playoff implications.
Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is now the betting favorite to win the Heisman, and the senior quarterback already has nearly 2,000 passing yards and 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions through five games. Penix also leads the Power Five with 11.2 yards per attempt.
Penix’s accuracy is elite – he ranks third in adjusted completion rate – despite constantly pushing the ball downfield – he leads the country with 20 passing completions on throws of 20+ yards per PFF. He’ll consistently test an Oregon secondary that lost its top three cornerbacks from last season, including Patriots first rounder Christian Gonzalez.
Oregon’s Bo Nix isn’t far behind Penix in the Heisman race, and his efficiency has continued despite losing offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham. New OC Will Stein has maintained a similar West Coast style offense that has leaned on one of the best offensive lines in the country.
Nix doesn’t offer the same downfield threat that Penix does, however, as his 6.4-yard average depth of target is the seventh-lowest in the Power Five among 156 qualified quarterbacks. Nix is asked to make quick decisions and get the ball to playmakers horizontally.
Running back Noah Whittington is expected to miss the rest of the season, but Jordan James and Bucky Irving are outstanding runners both averaging over 8 yards per carry. Behind that elite offensive line, they’ll challenge a Washington run defense that ranks outside the top 80 in EPA.
If you’re counting up advantages in this game, Oregon has the better offensive line, run game, and defense. Washington has the better quarterback and receivers and is playing at home. Ultimately, there’s a sound argument for both sides. I believe the constant is the offenses having success, and I’ll bet the over as a result.
Oregon Vs. Washington Prediction: Over 67.5 Points
Oregon Vs. Washington Best Odds
The early slate of this college football Saturday is dominated by ranked teams as big favorites, but this is a very tight spread. Washington is currently favored by 2.5 points at home. If you’re looking to back Oregon, try to find a flat +3 as that’s a key number in betting spreads. The over/under sits at a tantalizing 67.5 points.
Oregon Vs. Washington Key Matchups
When these Pac 12 rivals face off on Saturday, much of the discourse will be about the two Heisman caliber quarterbacks. However, let’s take a look at where these teams are excelling elsewhere with these two key matchups.
Washington’s Wide Receivers Vs. Oregon’s Cornerbacks
In addition to Penix’s great individual play, the Huskies have arguably the best wide receiver room in the country. Rome Odunze is considered a surefire NFL first round prospect while Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan are likely mid round picks.
Odunze is 6’3”, 215 lbs and runs a 4.34-second 40-yard dash. He’s a freaky athlete and an incredibly productive player, as his 608 receiving yards rank third in the Power Five. Jalen McMillan’s return to the lineup will also be huge for this team – he’s missed the last two games.
This is likely the biggest test of the season for Oregon’s cornerbacks, and a more seasoned group of Oregon corners allowed 408 passing yards to Penix in Eugene. Khyree Jackson, a transfer from Alabama, who’s a first-time starter, leads the group with an 81.3 PFF coverage grade so far.
Big Penix energy 🔥
Jalen McMillan with a pretty route.
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) September 2, 2023
Oregon’s Offensive Line Vs. Washington’s Defensive Line
Oregon’s West Coast offense relies on an elite offensive line to maintain rhythm, and I had concerns before the season about the Ducks replacing their top five offensive linemen in snaps. However, it hasn’t been a problem as Nix has been pressured on just 8.6% of his dropbacks, the lowest by far of any full time starter.
Rhode Island transfer Ajani Cornelius has been dominant at right tackle, in particular, as he hasn’t allowed a single pressure on 191 pass-blocking snaps. Cornelius ranks third among Power Five tackles in PFF pass-blocking grades.
Washington’s edge defenders, Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui, have both received NFL draft buzz throughout their collegiate careers. Games like these provide massive opportunities for exposure, and they’ll need to make big plays to boost their team’s chances to win against this dominant offensive line.
All 6’5”, 300+ of Ajani Cornelius coming atcha from Oregon’s right tackle spot. Downfield 🥞 pic.twitter.com/ewSiVpQqut
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 10, 2023