Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups for ALDS Game 3 (10/10/23)

The ALDS between the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers shifts to Texas for Game 3 this Tuesday (10/10/23) at 8:03pm ET. Down 0-2 and on the brink of elimination, the Orioles are handing the ball to Dean Kremer to oppose Rangers ace Nathan Eovaldi.

The Rangers are the betting favorites at -135 on the moneyline while the over/under is set at 9 runs. This article provides Orioles vs. Rangers analysis, predictions and best bets including a recommendation to pick the Orioles on the moneyline to keep their season alive.

Orioles vs. Rangers Prediction

Starting pitchers: RHP Dean Kremer (13-5, 4.12 ERA) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (12-5, 3.63 ERA)

It’s officially fall, and it seems the Orioles’ Cinderella season is on the verge of turning into a pumpkin.

Down 2-0 as they head down to Texas, Baltimore faces the indomitable task of beating a playoff-tested ace in Nathan Eovaldi to keep their season alive. Eovaldi finally started looking like himself again when he threw 6-2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Rays in the ALWC to help the Rangers clinch their spot in the ALDS.

Eovaldi was the Rangers’ best pitcher for most of the season until he suffered a forearm strain in July and went on the IL for over a month. He did not look the same when he returned, struggling to a 9.30 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in six September starts (20-1/3 innings).

Eovaldi has made 12 career appearances (7 starts) in the postseason and has a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over those 49-2/3 innings. He has a track record of consistently raising his level of performance in the postseason, and it looks like he’s doing the same thing this year after that start against the Rays. If the 2023 All-Star truly regained his form in that last outing, then he gives the Rangers a significant edge in starting pitching tonight.

Orioles starter Dean Kremer is making his postseason debut after a steady if unspectacular season. The Orioles waited until Monday to announce whether Kremer or veteran Kyle Gibson would start Game 3, and did not appear to have much confidence in either option. Gibson appears to be lined up for Game 4 now, but it’s possible he could pitch out of the bullpen today if Kremer struggles early.

Kremer may not have any postseason experience, but he did pitch well in two of the Orioles’ biggest games down the stretch. He tossed 5 innings of 1-run ball against the Rays when the Orioles clinched the postseason on September 17, then shut out the Red Sox over 5-1/3 innings when the Orioles clinched the AL East crown on September 28.

As if the pressure of a win-or-go-home game in your postseason debut wasn’t enough to get the emotions ratcheted up, Kremer is also pitching with more than playoff baseball on his mind.

Dean Kremer, who has dual Israeli-American citizenship, said his family in Israel is OK.

“Obviously, it’s a very sad situation. … I still want to pitch, but it’s going to be in the back of my head.”

— Nathan Ruiz (@NathanSRuiz) October 9, 2023

It would be irresponsible (and a little insensitive) to factor that into any betting decisions, but if it were to have any impact, our sense is that it will help Kremer more than it will hurt him. If it makes you want to root for (and bet on) the kid in this spot, then go ahead and go for it.

The Orioles may be in a tough spot on the road against Eovaldi, but we’re not counting them out just yet. This team has shown incredible resiliency this season. Their 48 comeback wins during the regular season tied for the league lead, and they have gone 91 consecutive series (since May 2022) without being swept in a 3-game series.

With the better starting pitcher and home field advantage, the Rangers are the smart pick, but we just can’t see the Orioles being swept after the season they just had, so we’re taking the plus odds on the O’s to get the W and stay alive for at least 1 more game. If they’re going to win, it’s going to be with the offense, which started coming alive in Game 2, so we would pair that pick with the over on 9 runs.

Orioles vs. Rangers Prediction: Orioles moneyline +115, over 9 runs (-110)

Orioles vs. Rangers Odds

The Rangers are the betting favorites at -135 on the moneyline, while the Orioles’ moneyline odds are at +115.

The Rangers are laying -1.5 runs on the spread at +140 odds, while the Orioles are getting +1.5 runs at -165.

The over/under in this game is set at 9 runs with -110 odds on both the over and the under.

Orioles vs. Rangers Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Orioles vs. Rangers.

Nathan Eovaldi vs. Orioles’ top 4 hitters
We picked the Orioles in our Orioles vs. Rangers prediction despite the tough matchup with Eovaldi. That means the Orioles need to find a way to do some damage on Eovaldi if they want to keep their season alive, and to do that they need the first 4 hitters in their lineup to produce for them.

Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn were the Orioles’ four best hitters against righties this season. Henderson hit his first postseason homer in Game 2, while Rutschman snapped an 0-for-7 skid with a double in the 8th inning.

Eovaldi had favorable reverse splits this season, holding lefties to just a .201 average, .579 OPS and .254 wOBA, while righties hit .245 with a .762 OPS and .331 wOBA against him. The Orioles cannot afford for their lefty-heavy lineup to struggle against Eovaldi, especially at the top of the order.

Bullpen battle
After the Rangers bullpen tossed 5-1/3 innings of 1-run ball in Game 1, neither relief staff fared particularly well in Game 2. The Orioles allowed 6 earned over 7-1/3, while the Rangers allowed 3 earned over 5 innings. While both bullpens have been taxed in the first two days, especially Baltimore’s, they should have all their key arms available tonight after the off day yesterday.

The Orioles had one of the best bullpens in the league during the regular season. They were 5th in bullpen ERA at 3.55, 1st in FIP at 3.55 and 2nd in xFIP at 3.94. Those numbers hardly dipped even after losing All-Star closer Felix Bautista to an elbow injury. However, they have not looked the same in the first two postseason games, especially Game 2.

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde is likely to have a short leash on Kremer in a must-win situation, so he could be aggressive with his bullpen today. Baltimore needs a better showing from its bullpen if it wants to extend its season at least one more game.

Orioles vs. Rangers Starting Lineups (Projected)

Orioles Starting Lineup
SS Gunnar Henderson (L)
C Adley Rutschman (S)
RF Anthony Santander (S)
1B Ryan O’Hearn (L)
DH Ryan Mountcastle (R)
CF Cedric Mullins (L)
LF Austin Hays (R)
2B Adam Frazier (L)
3B Ramón Urías (R)

Rangers Starting Lineup
2B Marcus Semien (R)
SS Corey Seager (L)
DH Mitch Garver (R)
RF Adolis Garcia (R)
LF Evan Carter (L)
C Jonah Heim (S)
1B Nate Lowe (L)
3B Josh Jung (R)
CF Leody Taveras (S)