Orioles Vs. Yankees: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (7/4/23)

There are few things more American than baseball, and few better settings for a ballgame than New York City on the Fourth of July. This Independence Day, after the hot dogs are eaten across town at Coney Island, we’ll be treated to an AL East rivalry matchup between the Yankees and Orioles. Let’s take a look at the odds for this divisional clash, where my prediction is for a Yankees win and the over to hit at +100 odds for a run total of 9.

Orioles Vs. Yankees Prediction

Not only is this an extremely fun matchup for the Fourth of July, it could prove to be a very important one. After taking the first game of this four-game set in dramatic fashion on Monday night, the Bronx Bombers are just 3 games behind the O’s for second place in the division, and the American League’s top Wild Card spot.

The O’s have hit a bit of a blip in what has been a strong start to their 2023 season. Before Monday’s loss, in which they squandered a 3-run lead, they dropped consecutive home series to the Reds and Twins. As for the Yanks, the ship has been relatively righted. After a rock-bottom sweep at the hands of the Red Sox, the team rebounded with 3 series wins against AL West foes, before coming back to Earth with a rough set in St. Louis.

Believe it or not, Clarke Schmidt is on a solid trajectory. He’s coming off of a June in which he tossed an ERA of 3.04, and across the past two months, he’s only given up 4 home runs after surrendering 7 in April. Schmidt is squaring off against Kyle Gibson, a veteran who has had almost the exact opposite season- he threw pretty well in April and May, but he garnered an ERA just below 7 in the month of June. Gibson has excelled in almost no areas according to Statcast, so it’s hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to his struggles.

Given my introduction of each starting pitcher, it may not surprise you that I’m building towards a Yankees moneyline pick; I think they have a very good chance to continue the momentum from late in Monday’s game and hang some runs on Gibson. I also love the over at even money- even with Schmidt’s improving form, I don’t exactly trust him to shut down a strong offense, which the Orioles have been thus far.

Orioles Vs. Yankees Prediction: Yankees ML (-120), o9 runs (+100)

Orioles Vs. Yankees Odds

The Yankees are -120 favorites while the visiting O’s are +100. For a run line of 9, the split is the same, with the under at -120 and the over at +100.

Orioles Vs. Yankees Key Matchups

Clarke Schmidt Vs. Left-Handed Heavy Lineup

One thing that has not gotten all that much better for Schmidt is that he still struggles facing lefty bats. The Orioles must be pleased with that trend, as their lineup is chock-full of lefties, with a couple of switch hitters mixed in.

Let’s start with some good news for Schmidt, which is that two major switch hitters- team mainstay Anthony Santander and first-time All Star Adley Rutschman- prefer to face left-handed pitching and hit righty. They’re still two tough outs, and a couple of the team’s best bats, but they’re much closer to league-average performers against righty arms. Former Yankee Aaron Hicks, who has had something of a mini-renaissance in Baltimore, also prefers to swing righty, which he will not do against Schmidt.

Some less-positive information from a Yankees standpoint is that rookie infielder Gunnar Henderson and first baseman Ryan O’Hearn have done most of their damage against righties. In fact, nearly all of their production is against right-handers, including each of the 17 home runs hit between the two players. I think Schmidt can do enough to help his team win, but this lineup is a big part of why I like the over for a total of 9 runs in my Orioles vs. Yankees prediction.

Kyle Gibson Vs. Yankees Contact Bats

One thing Gibson has done well this season is limiting home runs, with just 0.7 allowed per 9 innings of work. Of course, teams have scored against him all the same, most likely due to an elevated WHIP number of 1.376- lots of men on base is the formula against Gibson.

The Yankees picked up 13 baserunners on Monday, so all they have to do is keep it going. Rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe was a big part of that as he reached base twice, continuing the red-hot performance he’s put on since the fateful chicken parm dinner with Austin Wells during which he reimagined his swing. The youngster is hitting over .370 in that 18-game period, with an OPS over 1.000.

With Aaron Judge hurt, and other star bats completely dormant, a lot of heavy lifting has come from the middle and bottom of the lineup. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is hitting .412 over the past week and .340 over the past four, Harrison Bader is showing flashes of his best self, and even Kyle Higashioka contributed a homer and a double on Monday. Some of New York’s contact bats can go cold from time to time, but this lineup is a big reason I believe that they can hit their -120 moneyline.

Orioles Vs. Yankees Starting Lineups

Orioles Starting Lineup
3B G. Henderson L
C A. Rutschman S
DH A. Santander S
1B R. O’Hearn L
2B R. Urias R
CF C. Mullins L
LF A. Hicks S
RF A. Frazier L
SS J. Mateo R

Yankees Starting Lineup
3B D. LeMahieu R
2B G. Torres R
RF G. Stanton R
1B A. Rizzo L
CF H. Bader R
DH J. Donaldson R
LF I. Kiner-Falefa R
SS A. Volpe R
C K. Higashioka R