Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics NBA Player Props & Picks (1/30/24)

The Indiana Pacers (27-20) face the Boston Celtics (36-11) this Tuesday (1/30/24). Get Pacers vs. Celtics player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics Player Prop Picks

Which players will thrive in this Pacers vs. Celtics contest?

Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points (-110 DK) & 30+ Points (+260 DK)

The Indiana Pacers give up the most field goal attempts per game within eight feet of the basket (via NBA.com), which bodes well for Jaylen Brown. He paces Boston in these attempts per game and has no issue knifing his way into the paint as an on or off-ball player. Jayson Tatum has also struggled against Pascal Siakam, so Brown may see even more volume than usual, especially if Kristaps Porzingis (questionable) misses the contest. 

Indiana also ranks dead last in opponent free throw attempt rate, so he could rack up easy points from the charity stripe. For context, a league average free throw shooter (78.4%) produces the same expected points per possession from a trip to the line as a three-point attempt from a 52 3PT% shooter. 

Brown has dominated Indiana recently too; across four matchups this season, he recorded 16, 30, 31, and 40 points. Overall, look for him to thrive against a Pacers squad that surrenders the third most points per game to small forwards. 

Based on his odds, he needs to score 24 points at least 52 percent of the time and 30 points at least 27 percent of the time for the bets to be profitable in the long run. 

SGP (-149 FD): Aaron Nesmith 10+ Points & Pascal Siakam 4+ Rebounds 

Aaron Nesmith owns a 45.9 three-point percentage on 4.6 attempts per game. He faces a Boston defense that allows the third most three-point attempts and third most wide open three-point attempts per game. The Indiana sharpshooter should subsequently be a decent contributor in this matchup. 

Nesmith has hit ten points in nine of his past ten games, and he’s done the following against Boston this season:

  • 9 points on 4/9 shooting
  • 14 points on 6/10 shooting
  • 8 points on 3/13 shooting
  • 17 points on 6/10 shooting

Meanwhile, Siakam has snagged four rebounds in 42 of 45 games this season. With Al Horford out, Porzingis questionable, and Turner a mediocre rebounder, there should be plenty of chances for Siakam on the glass. 

This same game parlay needs to hit at least 59 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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