Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks: Predictions, Starting Lineups (2/1/24)

The Indiana Pacers (27-21) take on the New York Knicks (31-17) this Thursday (2/1/24). Get Pacers vs. Knicks moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Prediction

There are too many unknowns surrounding this game to make a confident game line prediction. OG Anunoby, Quentin Grimes, Bennedict Mathurin, Jalen Smith, and TJ McConnell are all questionable here, and it’s unknown how many minutes Tyrese Haliburton will log. Therefore, the best bet is a same game parlay featuring Jalen Brunson and Pascal Siakam.

The first leg is Jalen Brunson to score at least 25 points. In the four games Brunson has played without Julius Randle since joining the Knicks, he has averaged nearly 25 field goal attempts per game. That’s insane volume, and it’s a nice matchup for Brunson here.

Indiana gives up the most field goal attempts per game within eight feet of the basket (via NBA.com), and their guards struggle to wall off driving lanes. Enter Brunson, who ranks fourth across the league in drives per game and has no problem penetrating the paint. The Pacers stifle catch-and-shoot threats, so it shouldn’t be a heavy drive-and-kick night for the likely All-Star. Look for Brunson to be a prominent scorer tonight and notch 25 points without too much difficulty – for context, his points line his set at 32.5 tonight.

The second and final leg is Pascal Siakam to score at least 18 points. Tyrese Haliburton’s absurd passing and elite transition orchestration pairs perfectly with Siakam’s downhill brilliance. The former Raptor will get an easy six to eight points via layups every game from Haliburton’s playmaking. Siakam remains a dangerous self-created scorer too, and he meets a Knicks squad that has surrendered the fourth most restricted area field goal attempts per game since the Anunoby trade.

Overall, this same game parlay needs to hit at least 60 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value, thus making it profitable (and the juice worth it).

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Prediction: SGP (-150 DK): Jalen Brunson 25+ Points & Pascal Siakam 18+ Points

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Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Best Odds

The Knicks are slight 2.5 point favorites here; they own a 14-2 record since acquiring OG Anunoby. New York meets an Indiana squad that has produced an excellent 17-10-2 record against the spread as underdogs this season.

For the Pacers’ +126 moneyline to be profitable in the long run, they need to win this game at least 44 percent of the time.

Indiana Pacers Starting Lineup

PG: Tyrese Haliburton
SG: Buddy Hield
SF: Aaron Nesmith
PF: Pascal Siakam
C: Myles Turner

New York Knicks Starting Lineup

PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: Donte DiVincenzo
SF: OG Anunoby
PF: Precious Achiuwa
C: Isaiah Hartenstein

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Injuries

Tyrese Haliburton holds a probable tag, while Bennedict Mathurin, Jalen Smith, and TJ McConnell are questionable. If they cannot suit up, then Indiana’s bench takes a serious hit.

New York may be without OG Anunoby and Quentin Grimes tonight, as they are questionable. Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson will miss the contest too.

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Key Matchups

Jalen Brunson’s Free Throws

Indiana ranks dead last in opponent free throw attempt rate, and Brunson owns an 83.6 free throw percentage. Based on that mark, a trip to the line for two attempts produces 1.672 expected points. If Brunson racks up ten attempts in this matchup against Indiana’s undisciplined defense, then that’s about eight of the 25 points needed. Therefore, free throw attempts are a massive X Factor here for his point total and could save an off-shooting night.

Myles Turner’s 3PT Shooting

Myles Turner can shoot the three, but his efficiency is highly volatile. Should he get hot from deep, then Isaiah Hartensetin will have to be even more aggressive stepping out to defend high ball screens due to the pick-and-pop. That would be a boon for Siakam’s interior scoring because Hartenstein ranks seventh across the league in rim points saved per 75 possessions (via Basketball Index).

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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