Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (1/14/24)

The Indiana Pacers (23-15) take on the Denver Nuggets (27-13) this Sunday (1/14/24). Get Pacers vs. Nuggets player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate in the Pacers vs. Nuggets game?

Jamal Murray Under 2.5 3PM (-108 FD)

Indiana allows the fewest three-point attempts per game and the fewest open plus wide open three-point attempts per game (via NBA.com). Additionally, they surrender the fewest above the break attempts per game; that’s a massive red flag for Jamal Murray, as 87.7 percent of his three-point attempts come from this area. Not only will Murray struggle to get volume, but the looks he does acquire will have shot quality of a poor nature. 

Opposing point guards average the second fewest made threes per game against the Pacers. Jamal Murray’s history against Indiana suggests he does not disrupt this trend. Since becoming a starter, he has faced off against the Pacers nine times. He recorded at least three made threes in only one of those nine contests – that’s an under rate of 88.8 percent. Based on Murray’s odds, he needs to hit the under only about 52 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run. 

Finally, this game has blowout potential, which is corroborated by the 11.5 point spread. If Denver runs away with it early, then Murray could sit for most or all of the fourth quarter, thus slashing his volume. 

Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 Assists (-120 DK)

Fading one of the top playmakers in NBA history is scary, but it’s the correct play here. Indiana neutralizes the three-point line because opponents have no issue getting to the rim. The Pacers allow the most field goal attempts per game within eight feet of the basket and cannot stop a runny nose inside the paint. 

Nikola Jokic has played nine games this season against teams that currently rank in the top ten for most allowed field goal attempts per game within eight feet of the basket. He went under 9.5 assists in seven of those nine games, or 77.7 percent of the time. Based on his odds, he needs to hit the under in this matchup only about 54 percent of the time. 

Given Indiana’s paint woes and ability to completely limit three-point attempts, it likely leads to Jokic scoring instead of kicking it out. History supports this notion too. Jokic and Turner have squared off against each other as starters ten times. Jokic hit under 8.5 assists in all ten matchups, so getting a 9.5 line here is excellent, especially with the added blowout potential.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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