Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Player Props & Picks (3/12/24)

The Indiana Pacers (36-29) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (45-19) this Tuesday (3/12/24). Get Pacers vs. Thunder player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate this Pacers vs. Thunder game?

Pascal Siakam Over 0.5 3PM (-215 FD)

The line is juiced, but a win would still net a 0.46u profit – that’s not an insignificant amount.

Since joining Indiana earlier this season, Pascal Siakam has averaged three attempts per game from deep and shot a 38.4 3PT%. Over that span, he knocked down a triple in 19 of 24 games, or 79 percent of the time. 

He faces an Oklahoma City defense that surrenders the tenth most wide open three-point attempts per game, along with the most corner attempts per game (via NBA.com). That bodes well for Siakam, who has shot roughly 47 percent from the corners since becoming a Pacer. 

Meanwhile, the Thunder allow the ninth fewest paint field goal attempts per game and the second lowest paint field goal percentage. Chet Holmgren and company do an excellent job of deterring and contesting interior looks, which encourages opponents to adopt a more jump shot heavy game plan. Look for Siakam’s outside shot frequency to increase here as a result.

Finally, the Pacers (2nd) and Thunder (10th) both play at a rapid pace, thus boosting offensive possessions. Plus, it’s likely that the veteran receives heavy minutes with the score expected to be close. 

Based on the odds, Siakam needs to hit the over at least 68.3 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value, which deems it profitable in the long run. 

SGP (-165 FD, 1.5u): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points & Pascal Siakam 4+ Rebounds 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has notched 30 points in 47 of 63 games this season, or 74 percent. The vast majority of his scoring comes from inside the arc. He averages the seventh most paint field goal attempts across the NBA, as well as the fourth most free throw attempts per game

That’s a perfect recipe against a Pacers defense that allows the most paint field goal attempts per game and the third largest opponent free throw attempt rate. Essentially, Gilgeous-Alexander is built to shred Indiana’s defense. Given his immaculate consistency, the dangers of a mediocre scoring night are lessened too. 

For the other leg, Siakam has recorded four rebounds in 23 of 24 Indiana games (95 percent). He encounters a Thunder squad that gives up the sixth most rebounds per game. Their inability to control the glass is a massive weakness, and Siakam sits in an ideal position to exploit this flaw, especially since center Myles Turner does not classify as a dominant rebounder. 

For the same game parlay to be profitable in the long run, it needs to hit at least 62.3 percent of the time. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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