On Sunday (10/22/23), the Denver Broncos host the Green Bay Packers. In this article, find a full breakdown of the game with the latest betting odds. In addition, get our best bet which is the Broncos +1.5.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Denver Broncos Prediction
It’s another week where I’m covering my massively disappointing Denver Broncos here at Lineups, and it’s yet another week where I’m picking them to cover. Yeah, I know. But the value is on the Broncos here as they’re priced as a home underdog against a Packers team that I can’t trust to win on the road.
The last time we saw Jordan Love, he absolutely melted against a horrible Raiders secondary, throwing three interceptions and completing just 53.3% of his passes. Love was due for some regression from his early season numbers as the underlying metrics had suggested he was over his skis in terms of production.
Denver is coming off another loss on their way to a 1-5 record, but there have been some signs of life. Russell Wilson has quietly been pretty efficient, ranking seventh in EPA+CPOE composite among qualified quarterbacks. Now, he faces a Green Bay defense ranked 24th in passing success rate allowed.
Denver’s defense is also getting healthier with safety Justin Simmons back in the lineup and edge Baron Browning expected to be back on the field this week. They should steadily improve from being the worst defense in the NFL by DVOA and EPA to this point, and this is a good spot for that to happen against Love on the road.
The biggest fear here is that the Broncos have gone into tank mode. They control their own first round pick and could be waving the white flag in an effort to get Caleb Williams. After all, Sean Payton explicitly said at one point that Williams is a “truly generational player” and is good enough that someone will tank for him.
That being said, I’m passing on betting on this game for now. This won’t be an official pick on my season-long record. If you have to pick a side ATS, the Broncos as a home dog are far more palatable than the Packers as a road favorite with Jordan Love struggling. However, there are better games to bet this week.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Denver Broncos Prediction: Broncos +1.5
Green Bay Packers Vs. Denver Broncos Best Odds
GB @ DEN
Oct. 22, 8:25 PM
100% of staff picked DEN to cover the spread
Odds updated October 22nd, 2023, at 11:21 pm
The Packers opened as high as 2.5-point favorites in this game, and the spread has been dropping with Green Bay now favored by 1 or 1.5 points on the road. The over/under here sits at a crisp 45 points, which is one of the most key numbers for totals in the NFL. Denver’s Moneyline can be found at around even money this week.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Denver Broncos Key Injuries
The Packers are dealing with a handful of very significant injuries – RB Aaron Jones, OG Elgton Jenkins, LB De’Vondre Campbell, and CB Jaire Alexander are the most notable players currently listed as questionable. The Broncos, meanwhile, are getting healthier with safety Justin Simmons and edge rusher Baron Browning expected back this week.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Denver Broncos Key Matchups
While the Packers and Broncos aren’t pushing for any Super Bowl considerations this season, they do have some fun players to watch in this game. Let’s break down some of the key matchups that will help determine the winner here.
Cortland Sutton Vs. Jaire Alexander
The Broncos’ passing offense has lacked explosiveness overall, but Courtland Sutton is having a solid season with 25 catches for 275 yards and four touchdowns. He remains Russell Wilson’s top target in the passing game, especially with the recent concerns surrounding Jerry Jeudy’s lack of commitment to the team.
The Packers got former All Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander back in the lineup in Week 5 prior to their bye week after he missed the prior two games. Alexander allowed just one catch for 16 yards on 36 coverage snaps in that game against the Raiders per PFF, and he’ll draw Sutton in coverage in this game.
THIS CATCH BY COURTLAND SUTTON 😱 pic.twitter.com/g9bZSEB2Sy
— PFF (@PFF) October 13, 2023
Christian Watson Vs. Patrick Surtain II
One of the lone bright spots for the Broncos this season has been the elite play of former All Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Surtain has allowed just one touchdown in coverage all season and is one of the most technically refined corners in the league. His matchup against Christian Watson, an up and coming wideout, will be fascinating.
Watson returned to the lineup for the Packers against Detroit after missing the first three games of the season, and he caught three passes for 91 yards on Monday Night Football against the Raiders. At 6’5”, 208 lbs and with true home run speed, Watson is a big play waiting to happen against a Broncos defense ranked dead last in tackling per PFF.
CHRISTIAN WATSON 🔙
— PFF (@PFF) October 10, 2023