Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions kicks off Thursday (11/23/23) at noon EST in Detroit as a home game for the Lions. Get Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on Detroit -1.5 as a Thanksgiving Wong Teaser piece.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction & Best Bet
At this point we know exactly who the Detroit Lions are. A high-powered offense with a ferocious front four and one of the worst secondaries in football. All of those were on display in their hectic game against the Chicago Bears. Their secondary was torn to shreds by Justin Fields dual-threat ability until the front four was able to get some pressure on him. The Lions then mounted a comeback late in the fourth, scoring two touchdowns in less than four minutes to seal the win.
They now play host to the Packers on Thanksgiving in a highly anticipated rematch after beating them earlier in the year 34-20. Jordan Love has made some strides since their earlier battle, now starting to get in a groove and hit his receivers in stride. The issue is that Love may find himself void of talent at the skill positions. Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson were carted off the field, leaving AJ Dillon as the lone back. To make matters worse, pass catchers Luke Musgrave, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are all dealing with injuries as well.
Love will need as much talent around him as he can get as he may revert back to his struggles in the pocket against the Lions front four. This was a worrisome area in their first battle as the Packers offensive line grades out at league average at best in adjusted Line Yards and Sack Rate. With Love back to finding himself under constant pressure, sustained drives down the field may be tough to come by. Even against a weak Lions secondary, a unit that will benefit from the Lions pressure and negate their struggles in coverage.
Jared Goff is poised for a bounce-back performance after a three-interception game against the Bears defense. It was an oddity after building an impressive streak of not throwing an interception. Now he gets the chance to shred a Packers secondary which ranks in the bottom half of the league in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA and DVOA. Factor in the Packers heavy dose of the blitz and Goff should find himself with a wide-open middle for him to hit his streaking receivers in stride.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction & Best Bet: Detroit -1.5 Teaser Piece
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds
After closing -2.5 against the Packers in their first matchup, oddsmakers believe the gap has widened even further as they opened the Lions as a -7.5 favorite in the rematch. A potential over reaction after the Lions defense have fallen hard back to reality, making the current spread a pass and using Detroit as a Wong Teaser piece instead.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a below moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 44. Bettors believe that number opened too low, backing the over up to as high as 47 in some shops. This market is an immediate pass as the Packers offense has been decimated, yet still may produce against a weak Lions secondary.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Key Injuries
While the Lions are fairly healthy, the Packers injury report is loaded as the likes of Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave and Jaire Alexander all reside on the list.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Key Matchups
Can the duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs continue to run wild?
Lions Rush Attack vs. Packers Front Seven
A large part to the Lions offensive success has been from their star rushing duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. They perfectly complement each other as Montgomery is more of a red zone bull back while Gibbs is a speedy receiving type back.
DAVID MONTGOMERY TOUCHDOWN!!!
THE DETROIT LIONS TAKE THE LEAD WITH WITH 30 SECONDS LEFT pic.twitter.com/DCCSCLhHKI
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) November 19, 2023
They are now in a position to succeed again as they run over a Packers front seven who ranks 20th or worse in Def Rush DVOA, Success Rate, EPA, and Adjusted Line Yards. Especially when factoring in a healthy Lions offensive line, a missing proponent in their first matchup. With the Lions offensive line expected to create high quality running lanes, Montgomery and Gibbs should have no issue with moving the ball consistently down the field.