Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Same Game Parlay: Expert Picks & Predictions (11/23/23)

Get Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions same game parlay picks & odds for the (11/23/23) matchup.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Same Game Parlay Picks

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions kicks off this Thursday at 12:30pm EST in Detroit Michigan as a home game for the Lions. The Packers are currently a +7.5 underdog and +295 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47. Expect the Lions offense to continue to thrive off the backs of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, giving value for a same game parlay in this Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions matchup.

Leg 1: Detroit Lions Moneyline

Even with Jordan Love showing signs of progression after his early season struggles, oddsmakers still peg this as the Lions game to lose by opening them as a -7.5 favorite. That is in large part their advantage in the trenches, potentially masking their weak coverage with their front four’s ability to generate pressure. The Packers offensive line currently ranks league average in Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate.

When under pressure, Jordan Love may revert back to his inaccurate ways as he is forced to get the ball out of his hands faster than anticipated. That lessens the time for his playmakers to create separation in the open field, giving the advantage towards the Lions secondary as they have a better chance of staying in coverage and clogging passing lanes.

On the other end, it should be business as usual as the Lions offense has been their lone source of success. Even in a three-interception game, Jared Goff continued to stay aggressive and hit his receivers in stride when it mattered most. The Packers have struggled to defend both areas of the offense, now having to slow down a unit that is elite at both the pass and run. Factor in the injuries to Aaron Jones, Luke Musgrave, Jaire Alexander, as well as key lineman, and the Packers will be far less than 100% in a short week.

Leg 2: Detroit Lions Team Total Over 27.5

Not only do the Lions have a massive advantage in the trenches when on defense, but their offensive line is also in a great position to succeed. They currently rank top-5 in both Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate, facing off against a Packers front four who clocks in at 20th or worse in the same categories.

Jared Goff with a DART to Jameson Williams 🎯

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/NeuuzfbT5x

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 19, 2023

When in a clean pocket, Goff should have no issue with moving the ball down the field against a Packers coverage unit that ranks well below average in Def Pass DVOA, Success Rate, and EPA. That was made apparent in their first meeting as the Lions had no issue with creating separation and getting open across the middle. With Jaire Alexander potentially out, the Packers back end will struggle to hold their ground as a weak coverage unit.

Leg 3: David Montgomery 60+ Rushing Yards

Even as he splits carries with the revitalized Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery still churns out yards as the Lions bull back. Their rushing attempts were limited in their last game against the Chicago Bears, falling behind early and losing out on quality drives off of Goffs interceptions. That forced them into a pass-heavy game script late in the game, needing to move the ball in a hurry with the clock not on their side.

Against the Packers, David Montgomery should be in a position to thrive again as Green Bay’s front seven ranks 22nd in Def Rush DVOA, 22nd in Def Rush Success Rate, and 25th in Def Rush EPA. David Montgomery had no issue in their first meeting, receiving 32 carries that resulted in 121 yards and three touchdowns. Expect another run heavy performance in a short week with key advantages in every level of the field.

Leg 4: Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ Touchdowns

Since the first meeting against the Packers, Jahmyr Gibbs’ role with the Lions has quickly blossomed into him becoming a focal point of the offense. Even with the return of David Montgomery, Gibbs has still managed to receive a fair share of red zone looks for high quality scoring opportunities. With the Lions offense in a position to dominate, expect an uptick in red zone rushing attempts in Gibbs favor as he looks to continue his hot streak as the Lions productive dual threat back.

Same Game Parlay Card For Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions Moneyline
Detroit Lions Team Total Over 27.5
David Montgomery 60+ Rushing Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ Touchdowns

Full SGP Odds: +1000 ($10 wins $100.00)

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