The San Diego Padres head to Seattle after a series loss to the Dodgers this week that brought them to 55-58 and 4th in the NL West. The Mariners, meanwhile, are on a hot streak and have now passed the Angels for the third place spot in the AL West. There is still much work to be done if they want to make the playoffs, but they’re trending upwards. Read on for more on tonight’s game, including predictions, odds, and key matchups.
Padres vs. Mariners Prediction
Padres vs. Mariners Best Bet: Mariners ML
The Mariners are on a tear entering this game – they have won their last five series entering this game which includes a four-game sweep over the Angels and wins over Minnesota, Toronto, Arizona, and Boston. They’ve won their last five straight and eight of their last 10.
Seattle has swung the bat well so far in August batting .263/.345/.464 in the month with Julio Rodriguez leading the pack with a .360/.429/.600 slash line. Another bright spot in this lineup has been Tom Murphy who has emerged as a huge threat at the plate. In the last two weeks, he’s batting .375/.382/.656. Dylan Moore has also impressed – he is 10-for-26 with three doubles and four home runs in his last 10 games.
The Mariners pitching staff is still at peak performance, boasting a 3.80 ERA (5th), 55 quality starts (2nd), and a 1.18 WHIP (1st). Their relievers have been especially dominant so far in August and they have four saves in their six games. Logan Gilbert is on the mound for the M’s tonight who is looking to bounce back from his 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 HR performance last week.
No doubt the Padres have had a rather disappointing season given how much money they’ve poured into their lineup. They’re coming off of a 13-7 rout and series loss to the Dodgers that outscored them 34-22.
Tonight, right-handed relief pitcher Nick Martinez is assuming the starting role. As a starting pitcher, he has a .188 batting average against him, .274 OBP, and a .317 slugging percentage, though the sample size is small, as he’s started just five games this year. His average innings pitched this season overall is 1.67, so expect San Diego to throw some different things at Seattle.
This Padres lineup has had a promising start in August, batting .290/.346/.509 with 13 home runs over six games. They have the third-most home runs (39) and sixth-best team OPS (.811) since the All-Star break.
All that being said, the Mariners have the edge in this game. They seem to be firing on all cylinders at the plate lately, from their starters to their bench and have considerable momentum now that they’re well-above .500. With Gilbert on the mound, a hot bullpen, and patience at the plate, this Seattle team is hard to beat. Take Seattle to win outright.
Padres vs. Mariners Odds
The Mariners (-120) enter as home favorites in this matchup against the Padres (+100). If you are interested in betting the run line, you can get the Mariners -1.5 at +164 or the Padres +1.5 at -198. The over/under is 8.5 runs.
Padres vs. Mariners Key Matchups
Let’s take a look at the key matchups that could decide Padres vs. Mariners:
Mariners Bullpen vs. Padres lineup
In their first six games in August, the Mariners bullpen has four wins (1st) and a 1.40 ERA (4th), a continuation of the dominance they’ve shown this season. Los Bomberos have a .232 opponent batting average (8th), .309 OBP (9th), and a .292 wOBA (3rd) on the year. They’ve cemented themselves as one of the top relieving staffs in baseball.
The Padres have had a solid last few weeks of hitting despite some results but there are a few weak points within the Padres lineup that this Mariners bullpen could capitalize on.The team is batting .224 in innings 7-9 (25th) and they’ll be facing a right-handed heavy bullpen, which they aren’t particularly suited for as they have the sixth-lowest team batting average versus right-handed pitchers.
Logan Gilbert vs. Righty bats
Unsurprisingly, Gilbert has the edge against right-handed batters with a .222/.264/.374 slash line against him this season. Seattle’s right-handed pitchers in general have allowed a .201 batting average against them (2nd) this whole season. San Diego is home to some heavy righty bats that stand to test this, and have in the past.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .333 career batting average against Gilbert, Xander Bogaerts has a .400 slugging percentage against him, and Manny Macahado has a .286/.444/.429 slash line against him in his career. Bogaerts is especially dangerous here as he’s batting .273 with a .751 OPS against right-handed pitchers.
Overall as a team, the Padres’ righty bats are hitting .244 against right-handed pitchers, which sits in the middle of the pack in the league.
Padres vs. Mariners Starting Lineups
Padres Starting Lineup
2B Ha-Seong Kim R
RF Fernando Tatis Jr. R
LF Juan Soto L
3B Manny Machado R
SS Xander Bogaerts R
1B Jake Cronenworth L
C Luis Campusano R
DH Ji-Man Choi S
CF Trent Grisham L
Mariners Starting Lineup
SS J.P. Crawford L
CF Julio Rodriguez R
3B Eugenio Suarez R
RF Teoscar Hernandez R
1B Ty France R
C Cal Raleigh S
DH Mike Ford L
LF Dylan Moore L
2B Jose Caballero R