Neither of these teams, both viewed as major contenders before the season, has had the start to the season they would’ve hoped for, but both have a chance to turn it around. Let’s take a look at the odds as the Padres try to secure the three-game set, while Yankees will look to level the score- my prediction is that the Yankees will win and cover the moneyline of -135.
Padres Vs. Yankees Prediction
After he posted ERAs of 4.76, 6.62 and 5.05 from 2019-2021, it looked like Michael Wacha’s career might be on a permanent downward trajectory. Nevertheless, he rallied to a strong 2022 in a one-year stop in Boston, and is off to a good start this year for the Padres. He’s been excellent specifically in May, as he’s only allowed a single run in 25 innings of work across 4 starts.
Luis Severino will be the bigger starting pitcher storyline, however. Saturday in the Bronx will be just his second start of the year, and his first at home, after his recovery from an injury last season. He was solid against the Reds, allowing a run across 4.2 innings of work in what was always going to be a fairly limited start.
With Severino, it’s never been a question of ability- since 2017 he’s tossed an ERA of 3.39 or better every year. It’s just a question of availability, staying on the field has been his greatest battle. He’s got truly elite stuff, so it’ll be a treat to see him in action this Saturday.
The offenses are a completely different story. Both teams were supposed to have elite lineups, but that hasn’t really played out. After a truly horrendous start to the year, the Yanks have experienced some positive regression and now sit 11th in the league in runs scored, with much of the production coming in recent weeks. The Padres, however, still sit down in 26th for scoring, as they just have not been able to get the bats going.
With the Yankees at home, the offense getting healthy, and Severino on the bump, it’s hard not to pick them against a floundering Padres team, I’m backing them on the moneyline. As far as the total, I’m going to stick with the under; 9 runs is a pretty wild total for two offenses prone to disappearing acts, like the one the Yankees exhibited on Friday night. Wacha is on fire and Severino looked very functional in his first start back, so expect an old fashioned pitcher’s duel.
Padres Vs. Yankees Prediction: Yankees -135, u9 runs
Padres Vs. Yankees Odds
The Yankees are favored at home with -135 odds, while the visiting Padres are set at +115. For a run-scoring total of 9, the over is -105 while the number is set at -115 for the under.
Padres Vs. Yankees Key Matchups
Michael Wacha Vs. Top of the Lineup
The Yankees have had a bit of a “feast or famine” type of offense this year, where they either roll straight past teams or can’t seem to buy a run. A lot of that comes down to the fact that things simply hinge on a couple of players, and when they’re having an off-day, the team struggles.
Aaron Judge is, of course, one of those players. His return from injury and subsequent historic power surge was probably the biggest factor behind the Yankees’ recent success, and as he came back to earth, so did the team. Anthony Rizzo, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the shift ban this year, is also off to a really nice start as he’s hitting over .300 with 11 home runs himself.
Then there’s a few more bats that have been way up and down to start the year. Harrison Bader came off the IL and continued raking as he did last postseason, but has slowed down a bunch lately. Gleyber Torres is chronically streaky, and DJ LeMahieu has shown flashes of his best self, as we saw in 2019 and 2020, but has more often resembled the injury-burdened shell of himself we’ve seen in recent years.
Bats like Willie Calhoun, Jake Bauers, promising rookie Anthony Volpe and even Isaiah Kiner-Falefa have shown off their offensive ability in spurts recently- it’s hard to know who exactly could save the day with this lineup, but the bottom two-thirds or so are not to be relied upon.
Still, this lineup has true stars at the top and competitive hitters throughout, and their ability to get the job done against Wacha is one of the biggest reasons I have the Yankees hitting the -135 moneyline in my Padres vs. Yankees prediction.
Luis Severino Vs. So Many Lefties
After the controversial but always dangerous Fernando Tatis Jr. at the top of the lineup, Severino could have to deal with as many as six consecutive lefties with Manny Machado hurt. He’s never pitched to a particularly egregious platoon split, but it’s definitely not what you prefer to see as a right-hander.
Severino may not have a specific issue with lefties, but Juan Soto, one of the bright spots for this team, is annihilating righties. He’s getting on base nearly half the time against them, and has an OPS north of 1.000. Jake Cronenworth is having a solid start to the season overall, but doesn’t have a platoon split this year and only has a mild one for his career. Still, righty or lefty, he’s a tough bat for Sevy to look out for.
Next up are a pair of former Yankees teammates for Severino, Matt Carpenter and Rougned Odor. Both lefties are off to a tough start this year and don’t have splits that reflect this, but over the course of their careers, both have surely done better with righties
Padres Vs. Yankees Starting Lineups
Padres Starting Lineup
RF F. Tatis Jr. R
3B J. Cronenworth L
LF J. Soto L
DH M. Carpenter L
2B R. Odor L
CF T. Grisham L
C A. Nola R
1B B. Dixon R
Yankees Starting Lineup
2B G. Torres R
RF A. Judge R
1B A. Rizzo L
3B D. LeMahieu R
CF H. Bader R
DH W. Calhoun L
SS A. Volpe R
C B. Rortvedt L
LF I. Kiner-Falefa R