Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Miami Florida as a home game for the Dolphins. The Panthers are currently a +13.5 underdog and +660 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47.5. Weather and a sneaky good Panthers pass defense makes for intriguing Tua and Tyreek Hill player props, as well as Miles Sanders in scoring position, for this Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins matchup.
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Even against a hobbled Detroit Lions squad, the Carolina Panthers seemingly made little progression and have continued to look like the worst team in football. They now get a Dolphins squad fresh off a bounce back win, having to deal with their high-powered offense while also battling less than ideal weather conditions.
Tyreek Hill Under 88.5 Receiving Yards
It’s not exactly settling on the stomach to take a Tyreek Hill receiving yards under prop as he is one of the most explosive players in football and more than capable of burning this ticket with one downfield throw. Lucky for us bettors, this is as good a chance as ever to cash in on an under as multiple factors lean towards our favor.
Starting with the Carolina Panthers defense, this unit has had its fair share of struggles so far into the season. While they do not excel at most metrics, they are a sneak good pass defense unit as they currently rank 11th in Def Pass DVOA and 12th in Def Pass EPA. They also return Donte Jackson and potentially Xavier Woods from injury, beefing up their coverage.
The other factor in our favor deals with the weather, potentially having to play in less-than-ideal conditions affecting the pass attack. Rain is currently listed in the forecast, forcing both units to rely on a heavier dose of the run which eats away at potential targets in the pass attack.
The Dolphins are also a heavy favorite as the -13.5 spread implies, meaning that they may turn this into a blowout. With a comfortable lead and bad weather conditions, expect a heavy run game script late in the contest in an effort to burn the clock, eating away at more potential targets.
Tyreek Hill Under 6.5 Receptions
Coupling Hill’s receiving yards under prop with an under ticket on his receptions, I am pushing all my chips into the middle on the Dolphins offense dialing it back due to the previously listed factors above. It’s hard to ignore the fact that they are just as able to find success on the ground in an effort to negate the poor weather and Panthers pass defense metrics.
The Panthers defensive line has also done a fantastic job at getting to the quarterback, ranking fourth in Adjusted Sack Rate. With a moderate amount of pressure from their blitz rate, expect Tua to get the ball out quicker than anticipated which plays more towards Jaylen Waddle across the middle than Tyreek streaking down the sideline.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 0.5 Interceptions
It was an uncharacteristically bad game for Tua in his last game out in terms of efficiency, finishing their game against the Giants throwing for two interceptions to his two touchdowns. While motivation may be at the same degree as their last game out, the reliance on the pass attack will be minimized with a massive advantage in the ground game.
The Bills played phenomenal defense on Sunday to beat the Dolphins. One guy who shouldn’t be overlooked? Terrel Bernard.
On Micah Hyde’s interception, look at the depth Bernard gets down the middle, forcing Tua Tagovailoa into a high throw. Great play. pic.twitter.com/D5Cqx4xdXv
— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) October 3, 2023
The Panthers currently rank dead last in the NFL in Def Rush DVOA, Def Rush EPA, and Def Rush Success Rate while the Dolphins rank first across the board in the same metrics on the other side of the ball. With less attempts in the pass attack comes a higher chance of cashing this prop as the Dolphins may opt into abusing the run.
Miles Sanders Anytime Touchdown
*Update: Miles Sanders has been ruled out, replace Miles Sanders with Chuba Hubbard*
The Panthers offense is one of the worst units in football and that is in large part to them having the worst offensive line and group of pass catchers in football. One area that has not totally flopped is their ground game, ranking 17th in Off Rush Success Rate.
As for the Dolphins, they give up a fair share of yardage to opposing running backs by ranking 24th in Def Rush DVOA, 27th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 22nd in Def Rush EPA. Expect Miles Sanders to routinely put the Panthers in a scoring position by moving the sticks, as well as hearing his number called inside the 20 as he serves as their best chance to put points up on the board.