The winless Carolina Panthers travel to face the surging Miami Dolphins this Sunday (10/15/23). Get Panthers vs. Dolphins odds, picks, and predictions; our best bet is alternate over 46.5 total points.
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
Miami’s hyper-elite offense leads the league in points, expected points added per play, yards, yards per offensive play, first downs, and PFF’s overall offense grade. Tua Tagovailoa is playing at an MVP level, and he has no shortage of weapons. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle form the most explosive pass-catching duo across the NFL, which spells trouble for a below average Carolina secondary that ranks 17th in opponent net yards gained per pass attempt. Due to Miami’s vertical speed, Carolina must frequently play two-high coverage in order to somewhat curtail the constant stream of explosive plays.
However, that places even more stress on a Panthers run defense that cannot stop a runny nose. They are easily dead last in opponent rush expected points added per play, rank 28th in opponent yards per carry, and have given up the second most rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins recently placed rookie sensation De’Von Achane on injured reserve, but veteran Raheem Mostert is tearing up the league too. Of the 50 backs with at least 25 attempts, Mostert is 6th in yards per attempt, 11th in yards after contact per attempt, 13th in missed tackles forced, and 6th in breakaway yards (per PFF).
Factor in Mike McDaniel’s creative play-calling, and this unstoppable Dolphins offense should decimate Carolina to the highest degree.
On the other side, Carolina’s offense isn’t completely helpless. To start the season, they have scored 10, 17, 27, 13, and 24 points. First overall pick Bryce Young is improving every game, and wide receiver Adam Thielen has turned back the clock a few years. He already owns 394 receiving yards and three touchdowns through five contests. Those two are quickly forming a successful partnership and subsequently extending drives. Rookie Jonathan Mingo is also coming off his best game of the year; he caught five of seven targets for 48 yards.
Finally, Miami’s defense cannot be classified as stingy. They are 24th in percentage of opposing drives ending in an offensive score and 18th in opponent net yards gained per play. The secondary in particular has disappointed, which leaves the door open for Bryce Young and company.
Overall, the Dolphins should light up the scoreboard, while the Panthers can quietly string together a few scores. Taking an alternate over at 46.5 points is the play here. If this line cannot be found, then the traditional 48.5 over is also recommended.
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins: Alternate Over 46.5 Total Points (-170 FD)
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Best Odds
CAR @ MIA
Oct. 15, 12:00 PM
Odds updated October 15th, 2023, at 2:52 pm
The Dolphins are favored by 13.5 points here, and Miami ATS bettors will want to grab this in case it reaches 14 points. However, Panthers ATS bettors should exhaust all avenues trying to find a 14-point line, as it frequently turns a loss into a push. The 48.5 over under is one of the largest lines of Week Six.
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Key Injuries
A few of the most notable injuries include Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey, Dolphins running back De’Von Achane, and Panthers running back Miles Sanders.
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Key Matchups
Which team will win these key matchups?
DJ Chark Jr vs. Dolphins Secondary
The veteran speedster possesses big play upside, as he’s at 17.1 yards per reception this season. Chark can get behind a defense and significantly boost scoring chances through chunk receptions. During Bryce Young’s two seasons starting at Alabama, he recorded a jaw-dropping 50 big time throws compared to only 7 turnover worthy plays on passes that traveled at least 20 yards (per PFF). Young owns the touch and ball placement to hit Chark in stride, and the duo will need to connect for Carolina to post a respectable amount of points.
Panthers Offensive Line vs. Dolphins Pass Rush
Carolina’s offensive line has struggled mightily to protect Bryce Young. The unit ranks 28th best per PFF, and Young has the sixth highest dropbacks under pressure frequency in the NFL. He’s not a scrambler, and Carolina’s weapons don’t effortlessly separate every snap; therefore, it’s essential that the offensive line grants him enough time to go through his progressions and find the best option. Otherwise, it’s that much harder for Carolina to score.