Panthers vs. Lightning Prediction & Picks: Line, Spread, Over/Under – NHL Playoffs First Round Game 4

By Lineups Staff | Aug 24, 2024, 2:18am

Saturday will see the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning square off in Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs First Round at Amalie Arena, starting at 5:00 PM ET on TBS, truTV, TVAS, SNE, SNW, SNP, Max, BSSUN, and BSFL. The Panthers lead the series 3-0. Oddsmakers list the Lightning as underdogs in this decisive matchup, assigning them +105 odds on the moneyline against the Panthers (-125).

Ahead of this matchup, here’s who we project to bring home the win in Saturday’s NHL Playoffs First Round action.

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Panthers vs. Lightning Predictions for Saturday

Our computer projection model for this contest expects a final score of Lightning 4, Panthers 3.

Moneyline Pick: Lightning (+105)
Total Pick: Over 6 (computer predicts 6.3 goals on average)
Spread Pick: Lightning (+1.5)

Panthers Splits and Trends

The Panthers are 52-24-6 overall and 11-6-17 in overtime contests.
Florida has 40 points (18-7-4) in the 29 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
In the eight games this season the Panthers scored only one goal, they finished 0-7-1.
Florida has scored a pair of goals in 10 games this season (5-2-3 record, 13 points).
The Panthers have scored at least three goals 60 times, and are 50-8-2 in those games (to register 102 points).
In the 33 games when Florida has scored a lone power-play goal, it has a 27-6-0 record (54 points).
In games when it has outshot its opponent, Florida is 41-19-5 (87 points).
The Panthers have been outshot by opponents 15 times, and went 10-4-1 (21 points).

Lightning Splits and Trends

The Lightning have earned a record of 8-9-17 in overtime games as part of an overall mark of 45-29-8.
Tampa Bay has earned 24 points (8-4-8) in its 20 games that finished with a one-goal margin.
This season the Lightning scored just one goal in nine games and they’ve earned two points (1-8-0) in those contests.
Tampa Bay has earned seven points (1-14-5 record) this season when scoring a pair of goals .
The Lightning have scored three or more goals 54 times, earning 90 points from those matchups (43-7-4).
This season, Tampa Bay has recorded a lone power-play goal in 32 games has a record of 18-10-4 in those matchups.
When it outshoots its opponent this season, Tampa Bay has posted a record of 25-14-2 (52 points).
The Lightning’s opponents have had more shots in 39 games. The Lightning went 19-14-6 in those contests (44 points).

Team Stats Comparison

Panthers Rank	Panthers AVG		Lightning AVG	Lightning Rank
11th	3.23	Goals Scored	3.51	5th
1st	2.41	Goals Allowed	3.26	22nd
2nd	33.7	Shots	29.3	21st
3rd	27.8	Shots Allowed	29.6	11th
8th	23.51%	Power Play %	28.63%	1st
6th	82.47%	Penalty Kill %	83.33%	5th