Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans NFL Player Props & Picks (11/26/23)
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This season hasn’t gone as planned for either the Carolina Panthers or Tennessee Titans, but they’ll both be leaving it all on the field this Sunday (11/26/23) as they meet in Nashville for a fascinating cross-conference matchup. Let’s dig into some Panthers vs. Titans player props, with veterans like Adam Thielen and Derrick Henry taking the field, as well as promising up-and-comers such as Bryce Young.
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The Panthers will be going to the air plenty in this game to take advantage of a mediocre at best Tennessee pass defense, while the Titans will look to do the opposite; establish the run and exploit the Panthers’ weakness in that area. Let’s see how these trends could play out with some big individual performances.
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (-120)
There was a time when Derrick Henry to score a touchdown at anywhere near even-money would have been an absolute smash play. Last year was his fifth consecutive season with double-digit touchdowns scored, and some of those seasons surpassed that threshold by a wide margin.
Unfortunately, due in part to both the degradation of the Titans offense and of course the short prime of running backs in the NFL, that is not quite the case anymore, but King Henry has not completely abdicated his throne; he’s scored four times this season, and is not quite as explosive but continues to be one of the best goal line threats in the game.
He should have a particularly easy time finding the end zone against this Panthers team. They rank 31st in the league in red zone defense, so they’re no strangers to allowing drives to end in touchdowns, but if we whittle down to the run game, things look even better for the bruising Heisman Trophy winner.
Carolina ranks dead last in the league by almost every single rushing metric; their run defense is 32nd by EPA, DVOA, and success rate, a total indictment on the state of the unit. Conversely, the great work done by coordinator Ejiro Evero has the pass defense sitting right around league average.
Given the stark divide between Carolina’s defensive strengths and weaknesses, you would definitely expect the already run-first Titans, who themselves rank 11th in rushing DVOA but 21st through the air, to spend much of this game running the football.
The Panthers have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns already in just 10 games, so expect one of the great backs of this generation to add to that tally. We’re getting some great value due to his relatively low output thus far, so pounce on this number before he has a vintage performance and sends it back down.
Bryce Young Over 202.5 Passing Yards (-115)
It almost goes without saying when a team is 1-9 and isn’t even tanking to do so- as the Panthers don’t own their first round draft pick this season- but Carolina should be throwing plenty in this one as they should be playing from behind. They’re third in the league in pass play percentage, out of pure necessity, and while the Titans are no juggernaut, this game should be no different.
Further supporting the fact that the Panthers will likely be throwing is the strength of the Titans run defense, which ranks 10th in the league by success rate and fourth by DVOA. But there is good news- unlike most weeks, they should be able to find a good amount of success when they do go to the air. The Titans pass defense is on the other end of the spectrum compared to their run-stopping unit; they’re 30th by success rate, and 32nd by both EPA and DVOA, the worst unit in the league in most respects.
We’re also getting a great spot to bet the over on Young’s yardage prop. He hasn’t gone over 200 yards in any of his past three games, but he cracked this number in four consecutive contests before that dry spell. The market has gone too low; this is a perfect opportunity for him to rack up some stats, whether or not Carolina is able to stay competitive in the game. Expect Young to throw early and often, and to finally be rewarded a bit for doing so.
Adam Thielen Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)
This one builds on some very similar concepts to the first one. Due to the weakness of the Tennessee defense, we expect the Panthers to throw early, often, and effectively- but why should we invest in Thielen specifically?
A quarter of Young’s throws this year have targeted the veteran Thielen, who has been by far his top option in the Alabama alum’s first year in the NFL. His 97 targets on the year are well clear of Jonathan Mingo’s 51, the next-most of anyone on the team, and the difference in receptions is even more stark; 76 for Thielen, 24 for Mingo.
If Young is throwing a lot- which we’ve established he should be- it will heavily involve Thielen. We’re also betting this number in an excellent spot, as he’s only been over this total once in his past three games, but in seven of his ten games this year. This is the definition of a buy-low spot on a reliable producer, providing us with some phenomenal value.
Eddy Pineiro Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+115)
This is quite the simple play; we can’t trust the Panthers to turn positive drives into touchdowns. Even if Young and Thielen are able to move the football, which they should, they have little chance of finishing them off in the end zone. Carolina has a very average red zone offense, ranking 19th in red zone scoring percentage, while Tennessee’s defense inside the 20 is the second-best in the NFL.
Pineiro didn’t hit the over on this number in his last game, but he did in the previous three. He’s been perfect on field goal attempts from fewer than 40 yards away, which every one after a stalled red zone attempt would be. This is a perfect buy-low spot after an outlier performance, especially in plus-odds value.
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