Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears: Expert Same Game Parlay Picks for Thursday Night Football (11/09/23)

By Noah Rosenstein | Nov 09, 2023, 10:20am

The Chicago Bears (2-7) host the Carolina Panthers (1-7) this week (11/09/2023) on Thursday Night Football. The Bears are the betting favorites at -3.5 against the spread, while the over/under is set at 38.5 points. This article recommends a Bears vs. Panthers Same Game Parlay featuring Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard and Hayden Hurst.

Panthers vs. Bears Same Game Parlay Picks

This game makes us appreciate sports betting and fantasy sports as much as ever, because without a betting or fantasy interest there is very little intrigue in this matchup of two of the worst teams in the league. But even the ugliest of matchups can provide plenty of good options for building a winning same game parlay (SGP).

Before we get into our picks, it’s worth noting that the status of Justin Fields (we assume) has led sportsbooks not to list many player prop bets for Bears players, at least as of this writing. Therefore we’ve focused more on the Panthers side of this SGP. We’ve used odds from FanDuel Sportsbook for this parlay, but we encourage you to shop around for the best odds before you place any wagers.

Bryce Young 200+ passing yards (-190)

We’re focusing our Panthers vs. Bears Same Game Parlay on the Panthers’ passing offense, as we expect the Panthers to attack the Bears primarily through the air. For being such a terrible defense overall (30th in DVOA and EPA), Chicago has a surprisingly effective run defense (7th in DVOA, 3rd in EPA, 4th in success rate). Their pass defense, on the other hand, has been dreadful (30th in DVOA and success rate, 31st in EPA).

The Panthers have also struggled to run the ball this season with Miles Sanders being a disappointment. Even with Chuba Hubbard giving them a bit more juice on the ground in the last few weeks, they are still dead last in rushing offense DVOA, EPA and success rate. While Bryce Young has been somewhat disappointing so far this season after being the No. 1 overall draft pick, the Panthers are still middle of the pack when it comes to passing offense (14th in DVOA, 17th in EPA). That seems like a pretty clear recipe for a high-volume passing day for Young in this game.

Young is averaging just under 200 passing yards per game on the season (196.4), but prior to last week he had cleared 200 yards in four consecutive games. We are being somewhat conservative with this pick, as Young’s passing yards prop line is currently 218.5 yards at FanDuel. While we like him to go over that number, we prefer to start our Same Game Parlay with a slightly safer play and boost the overall odds with our other picks.

Bryce Young 1+ passing touchdowns (-360)

Sticking with that theme of conservatively buying the Panthers’ passing offense, let’s add at least 1 passing touchdown for Young to our parlay. Young has at least 1 passing touchdown in 6 of his 7 games this season. The Panthers only have 2 rushing touchdowns all season compared to 7 passing touchdowns.

It’s very unlikely that the Bears will keep the Panthers out of the endzone entirely, so the chances of Young throwing at least 1 touchdown is extremely high. That’s why the odds on this one leg are just -380, which brings the overall parlay odds to -132.

Hayden Hurst over 13.5 receiving yards (-114)

Now we are starting to get our SGP into plus territory, as this leg brings the total odds to +190.

Hurst has been one of Young’s favorite targets this season. He is averaging 22.7 receiving yards in games Young has started and has at least 14 yards in 5 of those 7 games and 3 of the last 4. He is coming off a season-high 54 yards last week (though most of it came on 1 big play).

The biggest reason we like this pick is that the Bears’ defense has been one of the worst teams in the league at defending tight ends. They are allowing the 5th most receptions (6.11) and the 13th most yards per game (51.3) to that position. They have allowed at least 14 yards to an opposing tight end in 8 of their 9 games this season.

Chuba Hubbard over 13.5 receiving yards (-114)

In addition to struggling against tight ends, the Bears’ defense is also allowing the most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs with an average of 64.2 yards. They are also allowing the 4th most receptions at 6.11.

Both Hubbard and Sanders are capable pass-catching backs and both have been involved in the passing game this season. Hubbard has 19 catches on 23 targets for 94 yards while Sanders has 18 catches on 29 targets for 103 yards. Both players have a chance to go over this number, and it’s hard to know which player it might be, but the recent trends favor Hubbard simply because he is on the field more. He has out-snapped Sanders in each of the last 4 games that both players have played, including a 91-30 edge in snap counts over the last 2 weeks.

Hubbard seems to be taking over as the lead back in this backfield, and with that role he stands a very good chance to exploit this Bears defense in the passing game. Between his snap volume and Young’s expected passing volume in this matchup, he should have plenty of opportunities to gain at least 13.5 receiving yards.

Same Game Parlay Card For Panthers vs. Bears

Bryce Young 200+ passing yards (-190)
Bryce Young 1+ passing touchdowns (-360)
Hayden Hurst over 13.5 receiving yards (-114)
Chuba Hubbard over 13.5 receiving yards (-114)

Full SGP odds: +401 ($10 wins $40.10)

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Noah Rosenstein

Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.