Get Patriots vs. Raiders player prop picks & odds for the (10/15/23) matchup
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Patriots vs. Raiders Player Prop Picks
The Las Vegas Raiders (2-3) host the New England Patriots (1-4) this Sunday (10/15/23) at 4:05 p.m. ET. It’s expected to be a low-scoring game with an over/under of just 41.5, but there are still some appealing player prop bets.
Let’s take a look at some of the best player prop bets for this Patriots vs. Raiders matchup.
Jakobi Meyers over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Cue the Jakobi Meyers revenge game.
The former Patriots WR is off to a very good start in his first season with the Raiders, averaging 68.5 yards per game on over 6 catches per game. He has developed an immediate chemistry with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
The sportsbooks are still catching up to Meyers’ early season production by setting his prop line at 54.5 this week. He has at least 10 targets in 3 of his 4 games so far this season and has at least 7 catches and at least 75 receiving yards in each of those games. He has also easily cleared his receiving yards prop line in all 3 of those games.
The Patriots are absolutely decimated with injuries in the secondary right now. Their top three cornerbacks to start the season – 1st round pick Christian Gonzalez, Jack Jones and Marcus Jones – are all on IR. Two of their top backups, Jonathan Jones and Shaun Wade, are also questionable for this game.
That’s a big reason why they just brought back their former standout CB J.C. Jackson in a deal with the Chargers. Jackson immediately became their best healthy (we think) outside cornerback and will likely spend most of the day shadowing Davante Adams, leaving Meyers to match up with either Jonathan Jones, Wade, or Myles Bryant. Regardless of who’s covering him, Meyers will have a big mismatch.
The Patriots are also expected to be missing their best pass rusher in Matthew Judon, who is likely headed to IR with a biceps injury. One of their other top pass rushers, Josh Uche was also a new addition to the injury report this week. If both of those players can’t go, then Garoppolo should have plenty of time to find Meyers down the field.
When you add in the additional motivation for not only Meyers but also head coach Josh McDaniels, the longtime Bill Belichick disciple, both the narratives and the numbers portend a big game for Meyers this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson under 2.5 receptions (+100 at BetMGM)
It’s been a rough start for Rhamondre Stevenson in his 3rd NFL season. He’s averaging career lows in just about statistical category. One of the biggest drop-offs has been in the receiving game, where Ezekiel Elliott seems to be the Patriots’ preferred pass catcher out of the backfield.
Elliott’s snap share and targets have increased in each of the last 3 weeks, while Stevenson’s have declined. Last week Stevenson had 0 catches on just 2 targets, while Elliott caught all 4 of his targets. Last week was also the first week where Elliott and Stevenson were nearly 50/50 in snaps (Stevenson had 2 more than Elliott). Given those trends it would not be surprising if Elliott becomes the Patriots’ primary running back this week.
The Patriots’ offense in general is just a mess right now, which creates value on the under on many of their player prop bets. There is potential for a “get right” game against the Raiders’ weak defense, but we expect those opportunities will go to Elliott and the Patriots’ other pass catchers more so than Stevenson. At even money odds, the under on Stevenson’s receptions represents one of the best values available in this game.