New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders kicks off this Sunday at 4:05pm EST in Las Vegas as a home game for the Raiders. The Patriots are currently a +3 underdog and +140 on the moneyline while the total is set at 41.5. Read on for more New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders best bets and predictions as the Patriots look to keep it tight by covering the spread.
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
It’s safe to say the Mac Jones experiment is not working, generating no sort of consistency under center. Granted some of the blame can be pointed towards their offensive line that ranks 28th in Adjusted Line Yards, as well as shouldering some of the blame to an underwhelming group of pass catchers. Still, Mac Jones folds under pressure and shoots himself in the foot with a tendency to throw into tight windows when he doesn’t have to.
Even with glaring offensive inefficiencies, they now get a Raiders defense who serves as no threat to the Patriots offense. The Raiders defense currently ranks 28th in Def DVOA and 27th in Def EPA. Their secondary especially struggles on this side of the ball, playing as one of the worst coverage units and ranks 29th in Def Pass DVOA, 23rd in Def Pass EPA, and 24th in Def Pass Success Rate.
Better yet for Mac Jones, the Raiders defense ranks 30th in Pressure. Their defensive line has mightily struggled generating any sort of pressure, ranking 23rd in Defensive Line Yards and 26th in Defensive Line Sack Rate. Outside of Maxx Crosby, the Raiders fail to field any sort of productive defensive lineman who can complement their elite pass rusher. This makes it easy to scheme against, shifting their protection to double Crosby while daring the others to beat them in singular coverage.
While not exactly quantifiable, the Patriots also have a major advantage in the coaching department. Josh McDaniels has quickly proven that he is the worst coach in football, especially in late game situations that can heavily swing the spread. His hyper conservative approach will keep the Patriots alive at the key number of +3 as McDaniels has no sort of sense of when to go for it. This opens up the door for more clock draining punts and low scoring drives resulting in field goals, keeping the Patriots within a puncher’s chance of covering.
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction: Patriots +3
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Odds
The Patriots have hit an all-time low as oddsmakers opened them as a slight +1 underdog to the Las Vegas Raiders. Bettors think of them even less, betting the Raiders up to as high as -3 as of writing. This may be an overreaction as the Patriots have key advantages on both sides of the ball, beginning more than capable of covering a key number of +3.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 44.5 Bettors believe points will be scored at a far slower pace, betting the under down to as low as 41.5. The Patriots defense and poor game management on the Raiders end will create plenty of stalled out drives to the benefit of the under.
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Key Injuries
Big names can be found on the injury report as the Patriots are without two studs in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez while the Raiders Davante Adams is currently listed as questionable.
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Key Matchups
Can the Patriots front seven continue to give the Raiders ground game fits?
Josh Jacobs Vs. Patriots Front Seven
After finishing last year as the league’s leading rusher, Josh Jacobs has been a non-factor at this point of the season. Multiple factors play into this as Jacobs held out for most of the summer until he got a new contract as well as the Raiders fielding a weak offensive line.
Ranked 27th in Adjusted Line Yards, the Raiders offensive line fails to generate any sort of push to open up gaps for Jacobs to exploit. The patriots defensive line ranks around average in Line Yards, being more than capable of plugging the gaps and slowing down Jacobs as he looks to bounce to the outside.