It’s time for one of the most popular cross-conference matchups, as the New England Patriots head south to square off with the New York Giants this Sunday (11/26/23). Get Patriots vs. Giants odds, picks and predictions below as our best bet is under 33.5 points.
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Prediction
This certainly isn’t the Patriots-Giants rivalry of old, a matchup that we twice saw as a Super Bowl within just a few years, and was often a highly-anticipated regular season matchup between contenders. Now, the Patriots are sitting in dead last in the AFC with a 2-8 record after a lethargic performance in Germany against the Colts. The unthinkable has even been discussed- a mid-season firing of Bill Belichick. While such drastic action doesn’t seem likely, it’s clear that an era is coming to an end in New England.
While the Pats are officially terrible on two continents, the Giants have been disappointing in very familiar settings. They’ve swept the Washington Commanders, but are 1-8 against all other teams with that lone win coming via a furious comeback against a Cardinals team without Kyler Murray. Both the offense and defense are near the bottom of the league by EPA, DVOA, and frankly, the eye test, as the team has massively regressed from a surprisingly strong 2022.
With Daniel Jones out for the rest of the season, the G-Men have been forced to turn to local product Tommy DeVito, who is coming off of by far the best performance of his young career. The undrafted rookie completed 18 of 26 passes in the win, accumulating 246 yards and three scores without turning the ball over, a tremendously promising showing after some dismal previous outings.
The Patriots might also be starting an unfamiliar face under center, although the circumstances are quite different. Mac Jones has struggled tremendously this season, and while it’s very hard to place the blame on him as he is surrounded by an atrocious offensive line and quite possibly the league’s worst skill players, the desire to make a change is understandable as Belichick looks to protect his job and reputation.
Bailey Zappe would be the logical replacement- he’s played in relief of Jones several times before. However, Belichick has stated that all three New England quarterbacks will be ready for Sunday, meaning that Will Grier, who hasn’t taken a regular season snap since 2019, could be in the mix also. If Jones does get the start, you’d imagine he would be on a very short leash.
It’s borderline impossible to take a side in this one; the Patriots shouldn’t be favored over anyone in the NFL, except perhaps the Panthers, but we can’t invest in a Giants line that is tremendously inflated after DeVito played so far above his head last week. What we can do is fade both offenses; the total is set pretty low, but it’s hard to go low enough when it comes to these squads, so we’ll fire on the under.
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Prediction: Under 33.5 Points
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Best Odds
The Patriots are three point favorites on the road, or -165 on the moneyline. The Giants are +140 to win, while both sides of the total of 33.5 are set at -110.
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Key Injuries
The Patriots are still without their two best players, edge rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, but former Giant Jabrill Peppers is going to be ready to go. Daniel Jones is also still out for the Giants, and offensive lineman Evan Neal is one of a few players listed as questionable.
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Key Matchups
With both teams likely playing bench quarterbacks, winning in the trenches and establishing the run will be absolutely key for both offenses- let’s see who will be able to do it.
New England Patriots Rushing Offense vs. New York Giants Run Defense
Ever since the retirement of legendary line coach Dante Scarnecchia, the Patriots offensive line has been slowly deteriorating. They rank in the top half of almost no run-blocking metrics, and have done little to help New England’s rushers, who are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. Rhamondre Stevenson is the team’s yardage leader, with Ezekiel Elliott right behind; the two have combined for exactly one big run this season.
Luckily for the Patriots, the Giants are essentially just as poor when it comes to run defense, grading in the bottom five by most of the key metrics. D-lineman Dexter Lawrence has been excellent, and the linebacker duo of Bobby Okereke and Micah McFadden has been fine, but beyond those three, it’s pretty dismal; nobody else in the front seven has a PFF run defense grade above 63. That’s already a subpar number, and several key players are well below it, a troubling trend for New York.
New York Giants Rushing Offense vs. New England Patriots Run Defense
Obviously, the Giants ground game has a huge edge over what the Patriots have to offer; the tremendous, even if not maximized, talent of Saquon Barkley. Barkley is averaging a fairly impressive 4.3 yards per carry behind this potentially league-worst offensive line, including averages over five yards in each of his past three outings. Curiously, he hasn’t scored since that week two game over the Cardinals, in which he recorded his only score of the year.
Run defense is actually the one thing the Patriots have done well this year; they’re hovering around the top five by EPA, DVOA, and success rate against the run. They’re in the same stratosphere when it comes to their PFF grade, and the rating system rightfully notices that safeties Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger have been absolutely fantastic stepping up to stop the run. As for the front seven, the loss of Judon has definitely been felt, as the defensive line has taken a bit of a step back, but the linebacker crew anchored by Jahlani Tavai has been excellent.