New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings NBA First Basket Picks Tonight (12/4/23)
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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings First Basket Picks
The goal of the first basket prop is to identify which player will score the first basket of the game. It’s important to note that first basket includes free throws, while first field goal does not.
Brandon Ingram First Basket (+450 FD)
Jonas Valanciunas is favored to win the tip-off over Domantas Sabonis.
Brandon Ingram has attempted New Orleans’ first shot in 38.8 percent of his starts, which easily paces the Pelicans. In fact, this mark is one of the highest rates in the NBA. He faces a Kings defense that has allowed the third most points per game to small forwards. They also rank 18th defending the midrange and 27th defending in isolation based on opponent shot quality (per ShotQuality), which heavily indicates success for Ingram tonight.
Ingram needs to score the first basket about 18.2 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run. Otherwise, the bet has a negative expected value.
De’Aaron Fox First Kings Field Goal (+190 BMGM) & Kevin Huerter First Kings Field Goal (+400 BMGM)
Fox has taken Sacramento’s first shot in 46.1 percent of his starts – an immense rate. He meets a Pelicans defense that has given up the 11th most points per game to point guards and lacks effective rim protection. Fox will be able to knife his way into the paint and initiate an infinite loop of layups.
Huerter, on the other hand, ranks second on the Kings with a 29.4 Team First FGA%. New Orleans is allowing the second most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions, as well as the 10th most points per game to shooting guards. Plus, opponents have produced the second largest catch and shoot three-point frequency against them. Overall, getting +400 for Huerter is a steal given his volume and matchup.
Fox needs to score Sacramento’s first field goal roughly 34.5 percent of the time, while Huerter sits at 20.1 percent.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings First Basket Data
| Game First FGA% | Team First FGA% | Starts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 52.3 | -- | 21 |
| CJ McCollum | 0 | 12.5 | 8 |
| Herb Jones | 0 | 5.5 | 18 |
| Brandon Ingram | 22.2 | 38.8 | 18 |
| Zion Williamson | 17.6 | 29.4 | 17 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | 19 | 23.8 | 21 |
| Sacramento Kings | 44.4 | -- | 18 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 23 | 46.1 | 13 |
| Kevin Huerter | 11.7 | 29.4 | 17 |
| Harrison Barnes | 5.5 | 11.1 | 18 |
| Keegan Murray | 7.1 | 14.2 | 14 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 5.5 | 11.1 | 18 |
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings First Basket Odds
