The In-Season Tournament “Knockout Round” is finally here, and with it, we have an enthralling matchup, featuring the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings. See the analysis for all of our favorite New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings player props below!
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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings Player Prop Picks
Below, we have our two favorite player prop picks for the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings game: Trey Murphy III Over 10.5 Points and De’Aaron Fox Over 27.5 Points. See why these two have favorable matchups and are in a good spot to secure the Over on their point total.
Trey Murphy III Over 10.5 Points (-105)
This line is a bit surprising, despite the fact that Murphy is arguably the fourth scoring option for a healthy New Orleans Pelicans team. In Murphy’s first game back from injury, and for the 2023-24 campaign, he posted 18 points on 7-for-13 shooting from the field; he only played 22 minutes and was able to put up that line.
Sure, that game was against the San Antonio Spurs, a team that is in complete disarray at the moment; however, there is a lot to like about Murphy’s success in his first game back and the confidence that will give him moving forward, especially against a team like the Sacramento Kings, which will present TMIII with a favorable matchup.
Thus far, the Kings have allowed opposing small forward to score the second most points per game and make the third-most three-pointers; they have been late to closeouts, which is an automatic death sentence with a shooter like Murphy, who is a 50/40/90-caliber sniper.
Much of the defensive focus for the Kings will be on Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, and Zion Williamson, leaving Murphy to get some inevitable, clean looks from deep. Once Sacramento closes out adequately, Murphy has shown that he is more than capable of attacking the rim off the dribble, especially given his 6-foot-8 frame and dunk contest-caliber vertical athleticism.
Ultimately, this line is a bit shocking. The Kings currently rank eighth in pace while the Pelicans are 12th; this plays into Murphy’s favor, as he will get some opportunities in transition and three-quarters transition to knock down some threes or attack the rim when the Pels have numbers. Near-plus money is too good to pass up here.
De’Aaron Fox Over 27.5 Points (-110)
De’Aaron Fox has been nothing short of spectacular so far this season, just one year after being the lead guard for the most effective offensive team (first in single-season offensive rating in NBA history) ever and winning the first-ever Clutch Player of the Year award.
This season, Fox has averaged roughly 30.3 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the floor and 37% from deep, giving him true three-level scoring capabilities. Shooting had been a relative weakness at the beginning of his NBA career but now he is truly unstoppable as an offensive threat.
Still, Fox seems to constantly be overshadowed this season, particularly with his player props. The line for Fox’s points in this matchup against New Orleans is at 27.5 points; he has cleared this number in seven of his past ten games. His 22 FGAs per game during that stretch is also promising, as volume is a paramount factor in star players’ scoring lines. Additionally, in two of the three games where he failed to reach 28 or more points, he finished with 26 points, so he has been extremely consistent in his scoring output.
The In-Season Tournament is new for all players and teams involved, but with additional cash incentives on the line, we can expect everyone to pick up their defense and effort, especially since we have reached the knockout round. Expect one of the most clutch players in the league to step up and hit some tough shots!