New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA Player Props & Picks (1/15/24)

The New Orleans Pelicans (24-16) battle the Dallas Mavericks (23-17) this Monday (1/15/24). Get Pelicans vs. Mavericks player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks Player Prop Picks

Which players will thrive in the Pelicans vs. Mavericks game?

Jonas Valanciunas Over 13.5 Points (-110 DK) & First Basket (+650 FD)

Dallas surrenders the fifth most points per game to centers and the third largest field goal percentage within eight feet of the basket (via Valanciunas’ physicality on the glass will let him exploit a Mavericks defense that gives up the third largest offensive rebound rate. Put-backs and potential subsequent free throws may inflate his scoring quickly in this matchup. 

Valanciunas has played in twelve games this season against teams that currently rank top ten for largest allowed field goal percentage within eight feet of the basket. Across those twelve contests, he cleared fourteen points eight times, or 66.6 percent of the time. Based on his odds, Valanciunas only needs to hit the over about 52 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run. 

Meanwhile, Valanciunas is favored to win the tip-off. He frequently takes New Orleans’ first shot of the game, and it has an excellent chance of happening here due to his juicy matchup. He must hit the first basket (including free throws) only about 13 percent of the time. 

Kyrie Irving Alternate Under 35.5 Points (-135 DK)

Kyrie Irving will once again command the offense with Luka Doncic out, so it’s a scary proposition to take his under. However, he has failed to hit 36 points in six of eight career games sans Doncic, including in three of four this season. 

Herb Jones and Dyson Daniels are long, persistent defenders that apply a tremendous amount of on-ball pressure. They can pester Irving and force him into tough shots all night – poor shot quality lowers the probability of a massive scoring night. Based on opponent points per possession, New Orleans also ranks third defending in isolation and first defending pick-and-roll ball handlers. Those two play types form the foundation of Irving’s shot diet, which indicates the under. 

Overall, it would take an abnormal shooting night for Irving to reach 36 points. It’s unlikely to me that he accomplishes this feat at least 43 percent of the time, which is the threshold needed to make this bet unprofitable in the long run. Therefore, Irving under 35.5 points is one of the best bets in this matchup. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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