New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (1/12/24)

The New Orleans Pelicans (23-15) battle the Denver Nuggets (26-13) this Friday (1/12/24). Get Pelicans vs. Nuggets player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate in the Pelicans vs. Nuggets game?

Nikola Jokic 10+ Assists (+105 FD)

Jonas Valanciunas lacks the athleticism, positioning, and length to bother centers, so New Orleans frequently has to send help inside to avoid isolation opportunities. In addition, the Pelicans can get caught ball watching and do not flawlessly rotate. As a result, they allow the most open plus wide open three-point attempts per game, along with the sixth most assists per game to centers (via NBA.com). 

Nikola Jokic possesses all-time court vision, and his unique arm angles allow him to make any pass in the book. Denver boasts a stable of efficient shooters, as Michael Porter Jr, Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, and Justin Holiday all clear 37% from deep. Look for Jokic to dominate here via kick-outs to three-point shooters. 

The reigning Finals MVP has notched at least ten assists in six of his past eight games against Valanciunas, and the two misses were both nine-assist performances. In two matchups this season, Jokic recorded 12 and 18 assists. His track record against Valanciunas is excellent for the prop. 

Based on the odds, he needs to hit ten assists at least 49 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value, which makes it profitable in the long run. 

Nikola Jokic Over 0.5 3PM (-140 DK)

Jokic sets crushing screens in pick-and-rolls or dribble handoffs, which forces the opposing big to drop and deter the ball handler’s driving lane. Therefore, the pick-and-pop is typically open for Jokic, who has the chops to shoot from deep. Valanciunas will face this dilemma and routinely drop into the paint against Denver, but he does not have the mobility to step back out in time to contest Jokic’s three-point attempt. Due to this mobility deficiency, centers average the tenth most made threes per game versus New Orleans.

Since Valanciunas joined the Pelicans, he has faced off against Jokic eight times. Across those matchups, Jokic averaged 4.5 three-point attempts per game and knocked down a three in seven of eight games. Look for “Big Honey” to once again take a ton of shots from beyond the arc here. 

He must hit the over at least 58 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run. He owns an 87.5% hit rate against Valanciunas since New Orleans acquired him. Additionally, Jokic has made a three in 14/19 (73.6%) career matchups versus Valanciunas. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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