New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Player Props & Picks (11/1/23)

The New Orleans Pelicans battle the Oklahoma City Thunder this Wednesday (11/1/23). Get Pelicans vs. Thunder player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Player Prop Picks

Which players can destroy their player props in the Pelicans vs. Thunder matchup?

Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 3PM (-135 FD)

The New Orleans Pelicans are allowing the second most open plus wide open three-point attempts when adjusting for pace, as well as the fourth most above the break attempts. Their horrible rim protection is forcing them to either pack the paint or collapse inside, thus leaving shooters open. Jonas Valanciunas doesn’t have the mobility to effectively play up on the ball screen, and he cannot match Holmgren’s transition speed as a trailer. It’s unsurprising that New Orleans is allowing the third most threes to opposing centers. 

Therefore, it’s a great matchup for Holmgren, who is currently shooting a blistering 62.5 3PT% on four attempts per game. Oklahoma City leads the league in drives and possesses numerous elite paint scorers, which has caused opponents to pack the paint. Holmgren is subsequently wide open beyond the arc, especially on pick and pops. 

Overall, it’s a 2u play to me and one of my favorite spots of the year so far. He needs to hit two thees about 57 percent of the time based on his odds for the bet to have a positive expected value.  

Parlay: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 0.5 3PM & Dennis Schroder Over 4.5 Assists (-156 DK)

As stated above, New Orleans’ three-point defense is extremely weak, especially above the break. That’s the same location where Gilgeous-Alexander utilizes his nasty step-back three as a counter to his drives. “SGA” is averaging 3.5 three-point attempts per game and desires to emphasize it in order to provide balance to his offensive game. Overall, it’s extremely likely that Gilgeous-Alexander can knock down a three here considering the matchup and his volume. 

Although Dennis Schroder won’t be in this contest, he’s a great addition for the parlay. The veteran guard has taken over Toronto’s backcourt as a lead initiator. Schroder has produced between 7 to 10 assists in all four games to start the season, and he faces a porous Bucks perimeter defense. Schroder will be able to bypass their guards with ease before kicking it out to open shooters – the wise move instead of challenging Antetokounmpo and Lopez. Look for Schroder to rack up assists here. 

This parlay must hit about 61 percent of the time based on the odds. 

Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 3PM (-155 DK)

Joe shot 40.9 percent from deep last season on 5.4 attempts per game, and he now leads Oklahoma City this year at 5.5 attempts per game. He has somewhat struggled so far (36.4 3PT%), but he’s an elite motion shooter that will scorch this pitiful Pelicans three-point defense. As one of the first reserves off the bench, he’s playing about 20 minutes per game, which is more than enough time for Joe to hit two threes. The Thunder are always looking to find him off of a screen, and they are utilizing him to perfection as a ghost screener that slips to the top of the arc. Overall, it should be a big night for Oklahoma City’s three-point shooters. 

Joe must make two threes about 60 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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